Novel risk scoring system for prediction of pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy

Figure 1 Forest plot of the predictive factors for clinically relevant pancreatic fistula in the study group by univariate analysis. Group 1: Factors with no statistical significance; Group 2: Factors with statistical significance. BMI: Body mass index; PD: Pancreaticoduodenectomy; PPPD: Pylorus-preserving pancreaticoduodenectomy; POD: Postoperative day; CI: Confidence interval; OR: Odds ratio.

Figure 2 Receiver operating characteristic curves. A: Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for the logistic regression model. The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.808; B: ROC curve for the risk scoring system in the study group. The AUC was 0.821; C: ROC curve for the risk scoring system in the validation group. The AUC was 0.835; D: ROC curve for the risk scoring system in all patients. The AUC was 0.824. ROC: Receiver operating characteristic; AUC: Area under the curve; CI: Confidence interval.

Figure 3 Receiver operating characteristic curves of drain amylase levels for low and high-risk groups. A: Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves of drain amylase levels on postoperative day (POD) 3 and POD 5 in the low risk group. The areas under the curve (AUCs) were 0.859 and 0.748, respectively; B: ROC curve of drain amylase level on POD 1 in the high-risk group. The AUC was 0.850. ROC: Receiver operating characteristic; POD: Postoperative day; AUC: Area under the curve; CI: Confidence interval.

Figure 4 Comparison with three other predictive scoring tools (Test1, Test2, and Test3). The area under the curve (AUC) of Test1 was 0.688 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.575-0.762]. The AUC of Test2 was 0.760 (95%CI: 0.675-0.846). The AUC of Test3 was 0.749 (95%CI: 0.665-0.833). The AUC of our risk scoring system was 0.824 (95%CI: 0.759-0.889). AUC: Area under the curve; CI: Confidence interval.