Prediction models for development of hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B patients

Table 2 Risk scores for prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma in treated chronic hepatitis B patients at baseline

Ref.	Risk score	Patients in derivation, n	Country or area	Age (yr)	HBeAg-positive, n (%)	Cirrhosis in derivation, n (%)	Follow-up (yr), median	Variables of the risk score	AUROC for 5- yr	Cut-off
Lee et al[35]	mREACH-B	192	South Korea	49 (42-56)	100 (52.1)	90 (46.9)	3.6	Age, sex, ALT, HBeAg, LSM	0.8051	-
Papatheodoridis et al[37]	PAGE-B	1325	Europe	52 ± 21	210 (15.8)	269 (20.3)	4.2	Age, sex, platelets	0.82	Low-risk ≤ 9; Intermediate risk 10-17; High risk ≥ 18
Sohn et al[43]	HCC-RESCUE	990	South Korea	47.4 ± 10.5	556 (56.2)	389 (39.3)	2.1	Age, sex, cirrhosis	0.768	Low-risk ≤ 64; Intermediate risk 65-84; High risk ≥ 85
Hsu et al[44]	CAMD	23851	South Korea	47.5 (37.8-56.5)	-	6308 (26.4)	2.2	Age, sex, diabetes, cirrhosis	0.821	Low-risk < 8; Intermediate risk 9-13; High risk > 13
Kim et al[46]	mPAGE-B	2001	South Korea	50 (42-57)	678 (33.9)	383 (19.1)	4.1	Age, sex, platelets, albumin	0.82	Low-risk ≤ 8; Intermediate risk 9-12; High risk ≥ 13
Yu et al[47]	AASL	944	South Korea	50 (41-57)	528 (55.9)	371 (39.3)	4.1	Age, sex, albumin, cirrhosis	0.802	Low-risk ≤ 5; Intermediate risk 6-19; High risk ≥ 20
Liang et al[48]	LSM-HCC and ELF	453	Hong Kong	51.7 ± 10.3	155 (36.1)	-	4.7	Age, albumin, HBV DNA, LSM, ELF	-	LSM-HCC 20 or ELF 9.8
Yang et al[50]	REAL-B	5365	United States and Asia-Pacific area	48.4 ± 12.7	1886 (37.4)	1085 (20.2)	-	Age, sex, alcohol, diabetes, cirrhosis, platelet, AFP	0.80	Low-risk 0-3; Intermediate risk 4-7; High risk 8-13
Lee et al[51]	CAMPAS	1511	South Korea	49.7 (42.1-56.2)	795 (52.6)	602 (39.8)	-	Age, sex, cirrhosis, platelet, albumin, LSM	0.8842	Low-risk ≤ 75; Intermediate risk 75-161; High risk > 161

¹Three-year hepatocellular carcinoma prediction.

²7-yr hepatocellular carcinoma prediction. HBeAg: Hepatitis B e antigen; AUROC: Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; mREACH-B: Modified Risk estimation for hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B; PAGE-B: Platelet, age, and gender-hepatitis B; mPAGE-B: Modified platelet, age, and gender-hepatitis B; CAMD: Cirrhosis, age, male sex, and diabetes mellitus; AASL: Age, albumin, sex, liver cirrhosis; LSM: Liver stiffness measurement; REAL-B: Real-world Effectiveness from the Asia Pacific Rim Liver Consortium for hepatitis B virus; ALT: Alanine aminotransferase; HBV: Hepatitis B virus; HCC: Hepatocellular carcinoma; ELF: Enhanced liver fibrosis; AFP: α-fetoprotein.