Prediction models for development of hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B patients

Table 1 Risk scores for prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma in untreated chronic hepatitis B patients

Ref.	Risk score	Patients in derivation, n	Country or area	Age (yr)	HBeAg-positive, n (%)	Cirrhosis in Derivation, n (%)	Follow-up (yr), median	Antiviral therapy during follow-up, n (%)	Variables of the risk score	AUROC for 5 yr	Cut-off
Yuen et al[21]	GAG-HCC	820	Hong Kong	40.6 (13.5-83.2)	356 (43.4)	124 (15.1)	6.6	0	Age, sex, HBV DNA, cirrhosis, Core promoter mutation	0.88	101
Wong et al[16]	CU-HCC	1005	Hong Kong	48 ± 7	-	383 (38.1)	9.9	152 (15.1)	Age, albumin, bilirubin, cirrhosis, HBV DNA	0.76	Low-risk < 5; Intermediate risk 5-19; High risk ≥ 19
Yang et al[22]	REACH-B	3584	Taiwan	45.7 ± 9.8	545 (15.2)	0	12.0	0	Age, sex, ALT, HBeAg, HBV DNA	0.796	-
Lee et al[24]	REACH-B II	2227	Taiwan	30-65	-	0	-	0	Sex, age, ALT, family history of HCC, HBeAg, HBV DNA, HBsAg, genotype	0.89	-
Wong et al[29]	LSM-HCC	1035	Hong Kong	46 ± 12	256 (24.7)	331 (32.0)	5.8	390 (37.8)	Age, albumin, HBV DNA, LSM	0.83	11
Poh et al[30]	RWS-HCC	538	Singapore	56.4 ± 12.1	167 (31.0)	80 (14.9)	4.9	-	Sex, age, cirrhosis, AFP	0.9151	4.5
Sinn et al[31]	D2AS risk score	971	South Korea	42.6 ± 10.6	547 (56.3)	0	4.5	0	HBV DNA, sex, age	0.884	Very low < 1; Low-risk 1.0-1.9; Intermediate risk 2.0-2.4; High risk ≥ 2.5
Fung et al[33]	HCC-ESC	723	Hong Kong	32 (18-83)	723 (100)	-	18.3	427 (59.1)	Age, sex, cirrhosis, HBV DNA, ALT, albumin	0.95	129
Fan et al[34]	AGED	628	Chinamainland	-	193 (30.7)	0	21.0	-	Age, sex, HBeAg, HBV DNA	0.76	Low-risk 0-4; Intermediate risk 5-9; High risk 10-12

¹Ten-year hepatocellular carcinoma prediction. HBeAg: Hepatitis B e antigen; AUROC: Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; GAG-HCC: Guide with age, gender, hepatitis B virus DNA, core promoter mutations and cirrhosis; CU-HCC: Chinese University-hepatocellular carcinoma; REACH-B: Risk estimation for hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B; LSM: Liver stiffness measurement; RWS: Real-world score; ESC: Hepatitis B e antigen seroclearance; HBV: Hepatitis B virus; HCC: Hepatocellular carcinoma; HBsAg: Hepatitis B surface antigen.