Sequential organ failure assessment score is superior to other prognostic indices in acute pancreatitis

Table 2 Evaluation of prognostic indices for severe acute pancreatitis (n = 81), intensive care unit admission (n = 20), and mortality in acute pancreatitis (n = 12)

Score	Sensitivity (%)	Specificity (%)	PPV (%)	NPV (%)	LR+	LR-	Diagnostic odds ratio	Accuracy
SAP
HAPS ≥ 1	79.0	49.7	18.2	94.4	1.569	0.423	3.712	53.3
BISAP ≥ 3	24.7	95.3	42.6	89.9	5.231	0.790	6.618	86.5
APACHE II ≥ 8	80.2	63.3	23.6	95.8	2.186	0.312	7.003	65.4
Ranson’s ≥ 3	92.6	51.9	21.4	98.0	1.926	0.143	13.5	57.0
Glasgow ≥ 3	76.5	68.5	25.6	95.4	2.432	0.342	7.106	69.5
SOFA ≥ 7	13.6	99.7	84.6	89.1	38.84	0.867	44.786	89.0
ICU admission
HAPS ≥ 1	90.0	47.2	5.1	99.3	1.706	0.212	8.057	29.9
BISAP ≥ 3	25.0	93.4	10.6	97.5	3.768	0.803	4.690	91.3
APACHE II ≥ 8	100.0	59.6	6.6	100.0	2.473	0	Nil	60.5
Ranson ≥ 3	100.0	47.9	5.7	100.0	1.918	0	Nil	49.5
Glasgow ≥ 3	75.0	64.5	7.0	99.3	2.110	0.388	5.440	65.1
SOFA ≥ 7	40.0	99.2	61.5	98.1	50.64	0.605	83.733	97.4
Mortality in AP
HAPS ≥ 1	83.3	46.6	2.8	99.3	1.562	0.357	4.371	29.9
BISAP ≥ 3	25	93.1	6.4	98.5	3.642	0.805	4.523	91.9
APACHE II ≥ 8	100	58.7	3.6	100	2.419	0	Nil	59.1
Ranson’s ≥ 3	100	47.3	3.4	100	1.896	0	Nil	48.2
Glasgow ≥ 3	75	63.8	4.1	99.5	2.072	0.392	5.289	64.2
SOFA ≥ 7	50.0	98.9	46.2	99.1	45.786	0.506	90.571	98.0

HAPS: Harmless acute pancreatitis score; BISAP: Bedside index of severity in acute pancreatitis; APACHE II: Acute physiology and chronic health evaluation–II; PPV: Positive predictive value; NPV: Negative predictive value; SAP: Severe acute pancreatitis; ICU: Intensive care unit; AP: Acute pancreatitis. HAPS, BISAP, and APACHE II were calculated at admission, Ranson's and Glasgow's were calculated at 48 h post-admission.