Predicting full-thickness necrosis in adult acute corrosive ingestion injuries in a sub-Saharan African setting

Table 6 Multivariate analysis of numerous admission variables in predicting full thickness necrosis and short-term mortality, n (%)

Variables			Predicting full thickness necrosis						Predicting acute mortality
		Total, n	No FT necrosis		FT necrosis		P value	ROC AUC	No mortality		Mortality		P value	ROC AUC
Gender	Female	35	31	88.6	4	11.4	0.279		28	80.0	7	20.0	0.207
	Male	65	52	80	13	20			58	89.2	7	10.8
At least one comorbidity	No	67	58	86.6	9	13.4	0.178		56	83.6	11	16.4	0.323
	Yes	33	25	75.8	8	24.2			30	90.9	3	9.1
Known psychiatric history	No	85	71	83.5	14	16.5	0.739		72	84.7	13	15.3	0.377
	Yes	15	12	80	3	20			14	93.3	1	6.7
Known HIV positive	No	88	75	85.2	13	14.8	0.11		74	84.1	14	15.9	0.138
	Yes	12	8	66.7	4	33.3			12	100.0	0	0.0
Prior corrosive/suicide attempt	No	89	75	84.3	14	15.7	0.339		77	86.5	12	13.5	0.673
	Yes	11	8	72.7	3	27.3			9	81.8	2	18.2
Needing endotracheal intubation	No	82	71	86.6	11	13.4	0.043	0.604	69	84.1	13	15.9	0.257
	Yes	18	12	66.7	6	33.3			17	94.4	1	5.6
Needing chest compressions	No	99	83	83.8	16	16.2	0.027	0.529	85	85.9	14	14.1	0.687
	Yes	1	0	0	1	100			1	100.0	0	0.0
Needing inotropes/vasopressors	No	97	81	83.5	16	16.5	0.447		83	85.6	14	14.4	0.480
	Yes	3	2	66.7	1	33.3			3	100.0	0	0.0
≥ Zargar IIIB endoscopic findings	No	79	75	94.9	4	5.1	< 0.001	0.85	74	93.7	5	6.3	< 0.001	0.759
	Yes	16	4	25	12	75			8	50.0	8	50.0
Grade 3 CT Findings	No	12	10	83.3	2	16.7	0.016	0.788	11	91.7	1	8.3	0.026	0.798
	Yes	5	1	20	4	80			2	40.0	3	60.0
Age (years)		100	31 (24-38)		39 (30-50)		0.015	0.687	32 (24-40)		31 (25-40)		0.917
Systolic BP (mmHg)		48	134 (114-143)		129 (113-149)		0.926		130 (113-144)		134 (120-137)		0.919
Diastolic BP (mmHg)		48	80 (73-90)		83 (75-97)		0.309		82 (73-90)		79 (64-91)		0.520
Heart rate (beats per minute)		48	94 (79-109)		86 (72-105)		0.405		93 (76-110)		94 (82-107)		0.965
Urea (mmol/L)		79	4.6 (3.3-5.9)		5.1 (2.7-7.1)		0.686		4.7 (3.2-6.5)		3.9 (3.4-5.4)		0.432
Creatinine (umol/L)		88	70 (57-81)		84 (68-102)		0.038	0.666	72 (58-85)		72 (66-84)		0.892
WCC (× 109/L)		85	14.07 (9.58-18.31)		13.80 (9.76-19.16)		0.695		13.79 (9.59-18.31)		15.75 (10.63-20.50)		0.605
Platelets (× 109/L)		81	253 (210-326)		206 (171-266)		0.045	0.666	245 (194-308)		263 (232-375)		0.142
Calcium (mmol/L)		12	2.21 (2.00-2.35)		1.99 (199-1.99)		0.31		2.15 (1.99-2.35)		2.21 (2.21-2.21)		0.885
pH		41	7.37 (7.31-7.42)		7.13 (7.07-7.35)		0.003	0.823	7.35 (7.17-7.40)		7.36 (7.27-7.43)		0.593
Base excess (mEq/L)		40	-0.50 (-5.50-2.10)		-14.20 (-17.00 to -4.60)		0.004	0.819	-3.2 (-12.1-0.65)		2.45 (-0.58-5.38)		0.020	0.199
Lactate (mmol/L)		40	1.80 (1.20-3.30)		3.20 (2.60-4.45)		0.026	0.746	2.45 (1.20-3.55)		1.55 (1.18-3.48)		0.677
Ingestion to first assessment (hours)		94	6.0 (2.5-14.5)		4.0 (2.0-8.5)		0.209		6.0 (3.0-15.5)		3.0 (1.5-6.5)		0.052

All numerical values expressed as median (inter-quartile range).

FT necrosis: Full thickness necrosis; ROC AUC: Receiver operator characteristic curve area under the curve; HIV: Human immunodefiency virus; CT: Computed tomography; BP: Blood pressure; WCC: White cell count.