Preoperative risk modelling for oesophagectomy: A systematic review

Table 8 Summary of the performance for all preoperative models in predicting respiratory complications, return to theatre, readmission and anastomotic leak

Ref.	Predictive model	Discrimination	Calibration	Outcome
Yamana et al[47], 2015	PNI	AUC = 0.609	Not reported	Respiratory complications
Yamana et al[47], 2015	GNRI	AUC = 0.651	Not reported	Respiratory complications
Ferguson et al[34], 2011	Ferguson score (3)	AUC = 0.708	HL P value (0.16)	Respiratory complications
Reinersman et al[49], 2016		AUC = 0.726	HL P value (0.2394)	Respiratory complications
Xing et al[50], 2016		AUC = 0.539	Not reported	Respiratory complications
Gray et al[53], 2020	NSQIP SRC (3)	AUC = 0.533	Insufficient	Return to theatre
		AUC = 0.625	Insufficient	Readmission
Peng et al[54], 2020		AUC = 0.558	O:E = 0.48	Return to theatre
		AUC = 0.558	O:E = 1.11	Readmission
Ravindran et al[55], 2020		AUC = 0.584	Not reported	Return to theatre
		AUC = 0.767	Not reported	Readmission
Ohkura et al[40], 2020	JNCD model	AUC = 0.531	Not reported	Anastomotic leak

AUC: Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; HL: Hosmer-Lemeshow; O:E: Observed:expected ratio; PNI: Prognostic nutritional index; GNRI: Geriatric nutritional risk index; NSQIP SRC: National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Surgical Risk Calculator; JNCD: Japanese National Clinical Database.