Preoperative risk modelling for oesophagectomy: A systematic review

Table 7 Summary of the performance for all preoperative models in predicting perioperative morbidity

Ref.	Predictive model	Discrimination	Calibration	Outcome
Filip et al[36], 2015	PNI	AUC = 0.65	HL P value (0.85)	Morbidity
Filip et al[36], 2015	CCI	AUC = 0.59	Pearson P value (0.48)	Morbidity
Filip et al[36], 2015	ACCI	AUC = 0.61	Pearson P value (0.17)	Morbidity
Schröder et al[29], 2006	Cologne score (2)	P value ≤ 0.001	Not reported	Morbidity
Lindner et al[48], 2016		P value = 0.010	Not reported	Morbidity
Lagarde et al[31], 2008	Amsterdam score (4)	AUC = 0.65	HL P value (0.366)	Morbidity
Grotenhuis et al[43], 2010		AUC = 0.64	HL P value (0.84)	Morbidity
Ferguson et al[45], 2011		AUC = 0.639	Not stated	Morbidity
Filip et al[36], 2015		AUC = 0.60	HL P value (0.55)	Morbidity
Gray et al[53], 2020	NSQIP SRC (3)	AUC = 0.553	“Insufficient”	Morbidity
Peng et al[54], 2020		AUC = 0.600	O:E = 1.89	Morbidity
Ravindran et al[55], 2020		AUC = 0.628	Not reported	Morbidity
Reeh et al[38], 2016	PER score	P ≤ 0.001	Not reported	Morbidity
Wan et al[41], 2022	RAI-A	AUC = 0.54	Not reported	Morbidity
Wan et al[41], 2022	5 Factor MFI	AUC = 0.57	Not reported	Morbidity
Wan et al[41], 2022	RAI-revised	AUC = 0.54	Not reported	Morbidity
Wan et al[41], 2022	RAI-revised (CC)	AUC = 0.51	Not reported	Morbidity

AUC: Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; HL: Hosmer-Lemeshow; O:E: Observed:expected ratio; CCI: Charlson comorbidity index; ACCI: Age-adjusted charlson comorbidity index; NSQIP SRC: National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Surgical Risk Calculator; RAI-A: Administrative risk analysis index; PNI: Prognostic nutritional index; PER: Perioperative esophagectomy risk score.