Preoperative risk modelling for oesophagectomy: A systematic review

Table 5 Summary of the performance for all preoperative models in predicting perioperative mortality

Ref.	Predictive model	Discrimination	Calibration	Outcome
Bosch et al[44], 2011	CCI (2)	AUC = 0.567	HL P value (0.659)	Mortality
Filip et al[46], 2014		AUC = 0.736	Not reported	Mortality
Bosch et al[44], 2011	ACCI (2)	AUC = 0.684	HL P value (0.270)	Mortality
Filip et al[46], 2014		AUC = 0.744	Not reported	Mortality
Steyerberg et al[30], 2006	Rotterdam score (3)	AUC = 0.70	“Excellent”	Mortality
Zingg et al[42], 2009		P value = 0.003	HL P value (0.266)	Mortality
D’Journo et al[52], 2017		AUC = 0.64	Fair (overpredicts)	Mortality
Ra et al[32], 2008	Philadelphia score (2)	“Effective”	“Good”	Mortality
Zingg et al[42], 2009		P value = 0.001	HL P value (0.735)	Mortality
Wright et al[33], 2009	Original STS model	AUC = 0.621	Not reported	Major morbidity or mortality
Peng et al[54], 2020	NSQIP SRC (2)	AUC = 0.627	O:E = 1.13	Mortality
Ravindran et al[55], 2020		AUC = 0.880	Not reported	Mortality
Takeuchi et al[35], 2014	Takeuchi model (2)	AUC = 0.766	Not reported	Mortality
Takeuchi et al[51], 2018		AUC = 0.697	Not reported	Mortality
Raymond et al[37], 2016	Revised STS model	AUC = 0.71	Not reported	Mortality
Reeh et al[38], 2016	PER score	P = 0.001	Not reported	Mortality
Wan et al[41], 2022	RAI-A	AUC = 0.58	Not reported	Mortality
	5 Factor MFI	AUC = 0.58	Not reported	Mortality
	RAI-revised	AUC = 0.62	Not reported	Mortality
	RAI-revised (CC)	AUC = 0.60	Not reported	Mortality

AUC: Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; HL: Hosmer-Lemeshow; O:E: Observed:expected ratio; CCI: Charlson comorbidity index; ACCI: Age-adjusted charlson comorbidity index; NSQIP SRC: National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Surgical Risk Calculator; RAI-A: Administrative risk analysis index; STS: Society of Thoracic Surgeons Oesophagectomy Composite Score; PNI: Prognostic nutritional index; PER: Perioperative esophagectomy risk score.