Preoperative risk modelling for oesophagectomy: A systematic review

Table 1 Development studies of preoperative multivariate models

Ref.	Period + number	Sample region	Operation	Characteristics	Source of data	Models tested	Outcomes tested
Schröder et al[29], 2006	1997-2002 (126)	Germany	TT	N: 46/126; H: 68 AC/54 SCC	Single centre	Cologne score	Morbidity
Steyerberg et al[30], 2006	1980-2002 (3592)	Unites States/Netherlands	TT/TH	N: 878/3592; H: 2118 AC/1307 SCC	SEER database + two centres	Rotterdam score	Mortality
Ra et al[32], 2008	1997-2003 (1172)	United States	TT/TH	N: N/A; H: N/A	SEER database	Philadelphia score	Mortality
Lagarde et al[31], 2008	1993-2005 (663)	Netherlands	TT/TH	N: 114/663; H: 476 AC/187 SCC	Single centre	Amsterdam score	Morbidity
Wright et al[33], 2009	2002-2007 (2315)	United States	TT/TH/MIE	N: 1016/2315; H: N/A	STSGTS database (164 centres)	Original STS model	Major morbidity + mortality
Ferguson et al[34], 2011	1980-2009 (516)	United States	TT/TH/hybrid/MIE	N: 167/516; H: 261 AC/137 SCC	Single centre	Ferguson score	Respiratory complications
Takeuchi et al[35], 2014	2011-2011 (5354)	Japan	Not stated	N: 1268/5354; H: N/A	National database	Tackeuchi model	Mortality
Filip et al[36], 2015	2008-2012 (167)	Italy	TT/TH/MIE	N: 131/167; H: 105 AC/62 SCC	Single centre	PNI-multivariate: PNI; CCI; ACCI; POSSUM; Amsterdam score	Morbidity + major morbidity (PNI-multivariate only)
Raymond et al[37], 2016	2011-2014 (4321)	United States	TT/TH/MIE	N: 2930/4321; H: N/A	STSGTS database (164 centres)	Revised STS model	Major morbidity + mortality
Reeh et al[38], 2016	1994-2007 (498)	Germany	TT/TH	N: 0/498; H: 253 SCC/245 AC	Single centre	PER score	Morbidity + mortality
Saito et al[39], 2019	2007-2015 (90)	Japan	MIE	N: 29/90; H: 87 SCC/3 AC	Single centre	PPCS model	Major morbidity
Ohkura et al[40], 2020	2011-2012 (10826)	Japan	Not stated	N: 2717/10826;H: N/A	National database (4105 centres)	JNCD model	Anastomotic leak
Wan et al[41], 2022	2006-2017 (10602)	United States	Not reported	N: N/A; H: N/A	National (NSQIP)	RAI-revised (CC): RAI-A; RAI-revised; 5 Factor MFI	Morbidity + mortality

TT: Transthoracic; TH: Transhiatal; MIE: Minimally invasive esophagectomy; N: Neoadjuvant chemotherapy; H: Histopathology subtype; SCC: Squamous cell carcinoma; AC: Adenocarcinoma; ACCI: Age-adjusted charlson comorbidity index; CCI: Charlson comorbidty index; POSSUM: Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the Enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity; RAI-A: Administrative risk analysis index; MFI: Modified frailty index; STS: Society of Thoracic Surgeons Oesophagectomy Composite Score; PNI: Prognostic nutritional index; PPCS: Predicting postoperative complications score; JNCD: Japanese National Clinical Database; PER: Perioperative esophagectomy risk score.