Burden of gastrointestinal cancers among working-age population over past thirty years in China

Table 3 Temporal trends in burden of gastrointestinal cancers by age group among working-age population in China 1990-2019

Age-group	Gender	Type of GI cancers	CIR			CMR			CDR
			AAPC	95%UI	P value	AAPC	95%UI	P value	AAPC	95%UI	P value
15-19 years	Overall	Colon and rectum cancer	0.75	0.51 to 1.00	< 0.001	-1.58	-1.87 to -1.30	< 0.001	-1.55	-1.85 to -1.25	< 0.001
		Esophageal cancer	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
		Gallbladder and biliary tract cancer	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
		Liver cancer	-4.06	-4.47 to -3.65	< 0.001	-4.55	-5.17 to -3.92	< 0.001	-4.55	-5.16 to -3.93	< 0.001
		Pancreatic cancer	-0.14	-0.40 to 0.13	0.31	-0.25	-0.51 to 0.01	0.06	-0.26	-0.51 to 0.00	0.051
		Stomach cancer	-0.64	-0.88 to -0.41	< 0.001	-2.95	-3.16 to -2.73	< 0.001	-2.92	-3.13 to -2.70	< 0.001
		All GI cancers	-1.03	-1.19 to -0.86	< 0.001	-3.05	-3.30 to -2.81	< 0.001	-3.01	-3.26 to -2.77	< 0.001
	Female	Colon and rectum cancer	0.58	0.27 to 0.90	< 0.001	-1.85	-2.05 to -1.65	< 0.001	-1.81	-2.13 to -1.49	< 0.001
		Esophageal cancer	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
		Gallbladder and biliary tract cancer	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
		Liver cancer	-4.15	-4.45 to -3.86	< 0.001	-4.77	-5.08 to -4.46	< 0.001	-4.77	-5.07 to -4.46	< 0.001
		Pancreatic cancer	-0.62	-0.97 to -0.27	< 0.001	-0.77	-1.11 to -0.44	< 0.001	-0.78	-1.12 to -0.43	< 0.001
		Stomach cancer	-1.38	-1.84 to -0.91	< 0.001	-3.38	-3.65 to -3.11	< 0.001	-3.35	-3.63 to -3.08	< 0.001
		All GI cancers	-1.18	-1.44 to -0.92	< 0.001	-3.19	-3.46 to -2.91	< 0.001	-3.15	-3.43 to -2.87	< 0.001
	Male	Colon and rectum cancer	0.94	0.49 to 1.39	< 0.001	-1.48	-1.82 to -1.15	< 0.001	-1.51	-1.95 to -1.07	< 0.001
		Esophageal cancer	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
		Gallbladder and biliary tract cancer	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
		Liver cancer	-4.09	-4.57 to -3.62	< 0.001	-4.55	-5.27 to -3.83	< 0.001	-4.55	-5.26 to -3.84	< 0.001
		Pancreatic cancer	0.04	-0.31 to 0.39	0.834	-0.07	-0.43 to 0.29	0.697	-0.08	-0.43 to 0.28	0.665
		Stomach cancer	-0.29	-0.54 to -0.04	< 0.05	-2.67	-2.96 to -2.39	< 0.001	-2.64	-2.92 to -2.35	< 0.001
		All GI cancers	-1.00	-1.31 to -0.68	< 0.001	-3.03	-3.29 to -2.77	< 0.001	-2.99	-3.25 to -2.73	< 0.001
20-24 years	Overall	Colon and rectum cancer	2.36	1.73 to 2.99	< 0.001	-0.22	-0.57 to 0.13	0.213	-0.15	-0.49 to 0.20	0.403
		Esophageal cancer	-0.85	-1.66 to -0.04	0.041	-1.85	-2.47 to -1.21	< 0.001	-1.83	-2.46 to -1.20	< 0.001
		Gallbladder and biliary tract cancer	-0.67	-1.28 to -0.05	0.035	-1.4	-1.99 to -0.82	< 0.001	-1.40	-1.98 to -0.81	< 0.001
		Liver cancer	-2.64	-2.95 to -2.32	< 0.001	-3.2	-4.05 to -2.34	< 0.001	-3.20	-4.04 to -2.34	< 0.001
		Pancreatic cancer	0.59	-0.11 to 1.29	0.097	0.48	-0.21 to -1.17	0.17	0.48	-0.20 to 1.17	0.17
		Stomach cancer	0.55	-0.26 to 1.36	0.183	-1.62	-2.44 to -0.79	< 0.001	-1.59	-2.40 to -0.76	< 0.001
		All GI cancers	0.22	-0.38 to 0.82	0.472	-1.79	-2.19 to -1.39	< 0.001	-1.75	-2.15 to -1.35	< 0.001
	Female	Colon and rectum cancer	1.92	1.41 to 2.44	< 0.001	-0.68	-1.54 to 0.19	0.126	-0.60	-1.46 to 0.26	0.173
		Esophageal cancer	-1.08	-2.05 to -0.11	0.029	-3.08	-3.77 to -2.38	< 0.001	-3.04	-3.73 to -2.34	< 0.001
		Gallbladder and biliary tract cancer	-0.87	-1.60 to -0.14	0.019	-1.77	-2.58 to -0.95	< 0.001	-1.76	-2.57 to -0.95	< 0.001
		Liver cancer	-3.25	-3.51 to -3.00	< 0.001	-3.71	-4.97 to -2.44	< 0.001	-3.71	-4.94 to -2.46	< 0.001
		Pancreatic cancer	-0.15	-0.80 to 0.50	0.653	-0.14	-0.80 to 0.52	0.675	-0.14	-0.79 to 0.52	0.675
		Stomach cancer	-0.32	-1.25 to 0.62	0.5	-2.32	-3.25 to -1.38	< 0.001	-2.29	-3.21 to -1.35	< 0.001
		All GI cancers	-0.23	-0.63 to 0.17	0.263	-2.37	-3.45 to -1.29	< 0.001	-2.33	-3.40 to -1.25	< 0.001
	Male	Colon and rectum cancer	2.56	1.89 to 3.23	< 0.001	-0.02	-0.27 to 0.24	0.884	0.07	-0.19 to 0.32	0.612
		Esophageal cancer	-0.79	-1.38 to -0.19	0.01	-1.31	-1.85 to -0.77	< 0.001	-1.31	-1.85 to -0.76	< 0.001
		Gallbladder and biliary tract cancer	-0.56	-1.23 to 0.10	0.097	-1.18	-1.83 to -0.53	< 0.001	-1.18	-1.83 to -0.52	< 0.001
		Liver cancer	-2.47	-2.71 to -2.22	< 0.001	-2.99	-3.45 to -2.53	< 0.001	-2.99	-3.45 to -2.54	< 0.001
		Pancreatic cancer	0.99	0.41 to 1.57	< 0.001	0.89	0.32 to 1.46	0.002	0.89	0.32 to 1.46	0.002
		Stomach cancer	1.13	0.38 to 1.89	0.003	-1.33	-1.95 to -0.71	< 0.001	-1.30	-1.92 to -0.67	< 0.001
		All GI cancers	0.38	-0.15 to 0.91	0.156	-1.63	-2.16 to -1.11	< 0.001	-1.60	-2.12 to -1.07	< 0.001
25-29 years	Overall	Colon and rectum cancer	2.77	2.04 to 3.50	< 0.001	0.30	-0.28 to 0.87	0.31	0.37	-0.19 to 0.95	0.198
		Esophageal cancer	-1.12	-2.35 to 0.13	0.078	-2.09	-3.20 to -0.96	< 0.001	-2.07	-3.19 to -0.95	< 0.001
		Gallbladder and biliary tract cancer	-0.53	-1.72 to 0.68	0.387	-1.26	-2.46 to -0.04	0.043	-1.25	-2.45 to -0.04	0.043
		Liver cancer	-2.40	-2.70 to -2.09	< 0.001	-2.95	-3.76 to -2.13	< 0.001	-2.94	-3.75 to -2.13	< 0.001
		Pancreatic cancer	0.84	-0.03 to 0.71	0.057	0.74	-0.11 to 1.60	0.089	0.74	-0.11 to 1.60	0.089
		Stomach cancer	0.55	-0.31 to 1.41	0.212	-1.75	-2.80 to -0.69	0.001	-1.71	-2.76 to -0.65	0.002
		All GI cancers	0.4	-0.32 to 1.12	0.278	-1.54	-2.14 to -0.94	< 0.001	-1.50	-2.10 to -0.90	< 0.001
	Female	Colon and rectum cancer	1.55	0.42 to 2.70	0.007	-0.72	-1.68 to 0.25	0.147	-0.65	-1.60 to 0.32	0.187
		Esophageal cancer	-1.67	-4.28 to 1.01	0.22	-3.62	-5.88 to -1.31	< 0.001	-3.58	-5.84 to -1.27	0.003
		Gallbladder and biliary tract cancer	-1.24	-2.94 to 0.49	0.159	-2.04	-4.36 to 0.33	0.091	-2.03	-4.35 to 0.34	0.093
		Liver cancer	-3.76	-4.08 to -3.43	< 0.001	-4.57	-5.94 to -3.18	< 0.001	-4.56	-5.93 to -3.17	< 0.001
		Pancreatic cancer	-0.02	-1.05 to 1.03	0.976	-0.18	-1.20 to 0.86	0.738	-0.17	-1.20 to 0.86	0.738
		Stomach cancer	-0.54	-2.30 to 1.26	0.555	-2.59	-4.44 to -0.71	0.007	-2.56	-4.41 to -0.68	0.008
		All GI cancers	-0.3	-1.22 to 0.63	0.525	-2.43	-4.15 to -0.67	0.007	-2.38	-4.11 to -0.63	0.007
	Male	Colon and rectum cancer	3.52	2.75 to 4.29	< 0.001	0.91	0.27 to 1.55	0.005	0.98	0.35 to 1.62	0.002
		Esophageal cancer	-1.00	-1.34 to -0.62	< 0.001	-1.55	-1.97 to -1.13	< 0.001	-1.55	-1.96 to -1.13	< 0.001
		Gallbladder and biliary tract cancer	-0.02	-0.77 to 0.73	0.96	-0.65	-1.37 to 0.07	0.076	-0.65	-1.37 to 0.07	0.078
		Liver cancer	-1.99	-2.30 to -1.67	< 0.001	-2.61	-2.61 to -2.82	< 0.001	-2.6	-2.81 to -2.39	< 0.001
		Pancreatic cancer	1.52	1.08 to 1.96	< 0.001	1.44	1.01 to 1.87	< 0.001	1.44	1.01 to 1.86	< 0.001
		Stomach cancer	1.44	0.90 to 2.00	< 0.001	-0.94	-1.35 to -0.52	< 0.001	-0.89	-1.30 to -0.48	< 0.001
		All GI cancers	0.85	0.56 to 1.13	< 0.001	-1.18	-1.46 to -0.90	< 0.001	-1.14	-1.41 to -0.86	< 0.001
30-34 years	Overall	Colon and rectum cancer	2.90	2.13 to 3.67	< 0.001	0.43	-0.42 to 1.28	0.324	0.50	-0.34 to 1.35	0.247
		Esophageal cancer	-0.95	-1.57 to -0.33	0.003	-1.74	-2.87 to -0.60	0.003	-1.73	-2.86 to -0.59	0.003
		Gallbladder and biliary tract cancer	-0.14	-0.96 to 0.69	0.737	-0.84	-1.64 to -0.04	0.038	-0.84	-1.63 to -0.04	0.041
		Liver cancer	-2.54	-2.75 to -2.34	< 0.001	-3.06	-3.76 to -2.36	< 0.001	-3.06	-3.75 to -2.36	< 0.001
		Pancreatic cancer	1.39	0.86 to 1.92	< 0.001	1.29	0.78 to 1.81	< 0.001	1.29	0.78 to 1.81	< 0.001
		Stomach cancer	0.37	-0.57 to 1.32	0.443	-2.02	-3.18 to -0.84	0.001	-1.98	-3.14 to -0.80	0.001
		All GI cancers	0.24	-0.46 to 0.94	0.508	-1.71	-2.59 to -0.82	< 0.001	-1.67	-2.56 to -0.78	< 0.001
	Female	Colon and rectum cancer	1.36	0.28 to 2.46	0.013	-1.28	-2.63 to 0.08	0.064	-1.21	-2.56 to 0.16	0.082
		Esophageal cancer	-1.93	-3.57 to -0.26	0.023	-3.87	-5.22 to -2.51	< 0.001	-3.84	-5.20 to -2.47	< 0.001
		Gallbladder and biliary tract cancer	-0.78	-1.96 to 0.41	0.197	-1.72	-2.84 to -0.58	0.003	-1.71	-2.84 to -0.57	0.003
		Liver cancer	-4.05	-4.34 to -3.76	< 0.001	-4.69	-5.73 to -3.63	< 0.001	-4.83	-6.60 to -3.04	< 0.001
		Pancreatic cancer	0.26	-1.31 to 1.85	0.751	0.11	-1.47 to 1.70	0.897	0.11	-1.48 to 1.72	0.896
		Stomach cancer	-0.97	-2.63 to 0.73	0.261	-3.18	-4.63 to -1.71	< 0.001	-3.15	-4.60 to -1.67	< 0.001
		All GI cancers	-0.65	-1.31 to 0.01	0.052	-2.89	-4.52 to -1.22	0.001	-2.86	-4.26 to -1.44	< 0.001
	Male	Colon and rectum cancer	3.88	2.99 to 4.78	< 0.001	1.25	0.63 to 1.87	< 0.001	1.32	0.70 to 1.94	< 0.001
		Esophageal cancer	-0.8	-1.52 to -0.08	0.029	-1.39	-2.39 to -0.38	0.007	-1.39	-2.38 to -0.38	0.007
		Gallbladder and biliary tract cancer	0.33	-0.59 to 1.26	0.485	-0.31	-1.20 to 0.59	0.494	-0.31	-1.20 to 0.59	0.502
		Liver cancer	-2.16	-2.39 to -1.94	< 0.001	-2.73	-3.31 to -2.14	< 0.001	-2.72	-3.30 to -2.14	< 0.001
		Pancreatic cancer	2.00	1.38 to 2.62	< 0.001	1.92	1.31 to 2.53	< 0.001	1.92	1.31 to 2.53	< 0.001
		Stomach cancer	1.27	0.50 to 2.05	0.001	-1.19	-1.79 to -0.59	< 0.001	-1.15	-1.75 to -0.54	< 0.001
		All GI cancers	0.65	0.14 to 1.16	0.013	-1.32	-2.01 to -0.61	< 0.001	-1.28	-1.97 to -0.58	< 0.001
35-39 years	Overall	Colon and rectum cancer	3.27	2.73 to 3.81	< 0.001	0.55	0.25 to 0.85	< 0.001	0.64	0.34 to 0.93	< 0.001
		Esophageal cancer	-1.73	-2.86 to -0.59	0.003	-2.23	-2.57 to -1.88	< 0.001	-2.22	-2.55 to -1.88	< 0.001
		Gallbladder and biliary tract cancer	-0.84	-1.63-0.04	0.041	-0.63	-0.93 to -0.32	< 0.001	-0.62	-0.92 to -0.31	< 0.001
		Liver cancer	-3.06	-3.75 to -2.36	< 0.001	-3.57	-3.95 to -3.18	< 0.001	-3.56	-3.94 to -3.18	< 0.001
		Pancreatic cancer	1.57	1.23 to 1.92	< 0.001	1.47	1.11 to 1.83	< 0.001	1.47	1.12 to 1.83	< 0.001
		Stomach cancer	-0.19	-0.56 to 0.19	0.332	-2.26	-2.47 to -2.04	< 0.001	-2.22	-2.44 to -2.01	< 0.001
		All GI cancers	-1.67	-2.56 to -0.78	< 0.001	-2.1	-2.36 to -1.83	< 0.001	-2.06	-2.42 to -1.69	< 0.001
	Female	Colon and rectum cancer	1.54	1.27 to 1.82	< 0.001	-1.12	-1.40 to -0.84	< 0.001	-1.04	-1.32 to -0.76	< 0.001
		Esophageal cancer	-3.84	-5.20 to -2.47	< 0.001	-4.16	-4.58 to -3.74	< 0.001	-4.13	-4.56 to -3.70	< 0.001
		Gallbladder and biliary tract cancer	-1.71	-2.84 to -0.57	0.003	-1.67	-2.13 to -1.20	< 0.001	-1.66	-2.14 to -1.18	< 0.001
		Liver cancer	-4.83	-6.60 to -3.04	< 0.001	-5.10	-5.41 to -4.79	< 0.001	-5.07	-5.41 to -4.73	< 0.001
		Pancreatic cancer	0.47	0.23 to 0.71	< 0.001	0.32	0.08 to 0.55	0.008	0.32	0.08 to 0.55	0.008
		Stomach cancer	-1.51	-1.94 to -1.08	< 0.001	-3.37	-3.80 to -2.93	< 0.001	-3.34	-3.79 to -2.89	< 0.001
		All GI cancers	-2.86	-4.26 to -1.44	< 0.001	-3.07	-3.35 to -2.78	< 0.001	-3.03	-3.31 to -2.74	< 0.001
	Male	Colon and rectum cancer	4.29	3.72 to 4.87	< 0.001	1.42	0.83 to 2.01	< 0.001	1.51	0.93 to 2.10	< 0.001
		Esophageal cancer	-1.39	-2.38 to -0.38	0.007	-1.84	-2.29 to -1.39	< 0.001	-1.84	-2.28 to -1.39	< 0.001
		Gallbladder and biliary tract cancer	-0.31	-1.20 to 0.59	0.502	-0.01	-0.41 to 0.40	0.98	0.00	-0.40 to 0.41	0.992
		Liver cancer	-2.72	-3.30 to -2.14	< 0.001	-3.26	-3.80 to -2.70	< 0.001	-3.25	-3.80 to -2.70	< 0.001
		Pancreatic cancer	1.98	1.42 to 2.55	< 0.001	1.89	1.33 to 2.45	< 0.001	1.89	1.33 to 2.45	< 0.001
		Stomach cancer	0.61	0.12 to 1.09	0.014	-1.54	-1.94 to -1.14	< 0.001	-1.51	-1.91 to -1.11	< 0.001
		All GI cancers	-1.28	-1.97 to -0.58	< 0.001	-1.73	-2.08 to -1.39	< 0.001	-1.70	-2.04 to -1.35	< 0.001
40-44 years	Overall	Colon and rectum cancer	3.39	3.06 to 3.72	< 0.001	0.61	0.24 to 0.97	0.001	0.70	0.34 to 1.06	< 0.001
		Esophageal cancer	-2.47	-2.89 to -2.05	< 0.001	-3.07	-3.47 to -2.68	< 0.001	-3.06	-3.46 to -2.66	< 0.001
		Gallbladder and biliary tract cancer	0.52	0.19 to 0.85	0.002	-0.21	-0.48 to 0.06	0.122	-0.21	-0.48 to 0.07	0.141
		Liver cancer	-2.98	-3.23 to -2.74	< 0.001	-3.66	-4.08 to -3.24	< 0.001	-3.65	-4.07 to -3.23	< 0.001
		Pancreatic cancer	2.15	1.91 to 2.40	< 0.001	2.05	1.81 to 2.29	< 0.001	2.05	1.81 to 2.29	< 0.001
		Stomach cancer	-0.42	-0.82 to -0.01	0.042	-2.59	-2.97 to -2.21	< 0.001	-2.56	-2.94 to -2.18	< 0.001
		All GI cancers	-0.47	-0.94 to 0.01	0.057	-2.37	-2.71 to -2.03	< 0.001	-2.33	-2.68 to -1.98	< 0.001
	Female	Colon and rectum cancer	1.66	1.30 to 2.02	< 0.001	-1.02	-1.31 to -0.72	< 0.001	-0.93	-1.23 to -0.63	< 0.001
		Esophageal cancer	-3.26	-3.66 to -2.86	< 0.001	-5.02	-5.56 to -4.49	< 0.001	-5.01	-5.45 to -4.56	< 0.001
		Gallbladder and biliary tract cancer	-0.45	-0.60 to -0.30	< 0.001	-1.34	-1.55 to -1.13	< 0.001	-1.33	-1.55 to -1.12	< 0.001
		Liver cancer	-4.54	-4.81 to -4.26	< 0.001	-5.20	-5.56 to -4.84	< 0.001	-5.20	-5.56 to -4.84	< 0.001
		Pancreatic cancer	1.05	0.56 to 1.55	< 0.001	0.89	0.38 to 1.41	0.001	0.89	0.38 to 1.40	0.001
		Stomach cancer	-1.63	-1.91 to -1.35	< 0.001	-3.63	-3.89 to -3.37	< 0.001	-3.61	-3.86 to -3.35	< 0.001
		All GI cancers	-1.12	-1.34 to -0.89	< 0.001	-3.26	-3.75 to -2.77	< 0.001	-3.22	-3.70 to -2.73	< 0.001
	Male	Colon and rectum cancer	4.46	4.03 to 4.88	< 0.001	1.63	1.15 to 2.11	< 0.001	1.72	1.25 to 2.20	< 0.001
		Esophageal cancer	-2.24	-2.70 to -1.77	< 0.001	-2.71	-3.15 to -2.26	< 0.001	-2.70	-3.14 to -2.25	< 0.001
		Gallbladder and biliary tract cancer	1.15	0.94 to 1.36	< 0.001	0.53	0.34 to 0.73	< 0.001	0.54	0.35 to 0.77	< 0.001
		Liver cancer	-2.62	-2.89 to -2.35	< 0.001	-3.26	-3.43 to -2.79	< 0.001	-3.26	-3.72 to -2.78	< 0.001
		Pancreatic cancer	2.63	2.34 to 2.91	< 0.001	2.53	2.25 to 2.82	< 0.001	2.54	2.25 to 2.82	< 0.001
		Stomach cancer	0.07	-0.30 to 0.44	0.702	-2.04	-2.51 to -1.57	< 0.001	-2.01	-2.48 to -1.53	< 0.001
		All GI cancers	-0.18	-0.68 to 0.33	0.488	-2.03	-2.40 to -1.67	< 0.001	-2.00	-2.37 to -1.63	< 0.001
45-49 years	Overall	Colon and rectum cancer	2.96	2.43 to 3.49	< 0.001	0.54	0.14 to 0.94	0.008	0.63	0.23 to 1.02	0.002
		Esophageal cancer	-2.14	-2.91 to -1.37	< 0.001	-2.82	-3.50 to -2.13	< 0.001	-2.81	-3.49 to -2.12	< 0.001
		Gallbladder and biliary tract cancer	0.10	-0.25 to 0.45	0.591	-0.25	-0.60 to 0.11	0.174	-0.24	-0.60 to 0.11	0.182
		Liver cancer	-3.43	-3.88 to -2.97	< 0.001	-3.93	-4.77 to -3.08	< 0.001	-3.92	-4.76 to -3.08	< 0.001
		Pancreatic cancer	1.61	1.34 to 1.88	< 0.001	1.54	1.27 to 1.82	< 0.001	1.55	1.27 to 1.82	< 0.001
		Stomach cancer	-1.04	-1.61 to -0.46	< 0.001	-2.87	-3.62 to -2.11	< 0.001	-2.84	-3.59 to -2.08	< 0.001
		All GI cancers	-0.93	-1.22 to -0.65	< 0.001	-2.51	-2.96 to -2.05	< 0.001	-2.47	-2.93 to -2.02	< 0.001
	Female	Colon and rectum cancer	1.76	1.01 to 2.51	< 0.001	-0.75	-1.40 to -0.09	0.025	-0.66	-1.32 to -0.01	0.047
		Esophageal cancer	-3.07	-3.64 to -2.50	< 0.001	-4.72	-5.18 to -4.26	< 0.001	-4.69	-5.15 to -4.22	< 0.001
		Gallbladder and biliary tract cancer	-0.58	-1.48 to 0.33	0.211	-1.01	-1.92 to -0.10	0.03	-1.01	-1.92 to -0.09	< 0.05
		Liver cancer	-4.72	-4.92 to -4.51	< 0.001	-5.02	-6.14 to -3.89	< 0.001	-5.02	-6.13 to -3.90	< 0.001
		Pancreatic cancer	0.88	0.06 to 1.71	0.035	0.79	-0.04 to 1.61	0.061	0.79	-0.04 to 1.62	0.061
		Stomach cancer	-1.98	-3.07 to -0.89	< 0.001	-3.56	-4.61 to -2.50	< 0.001	-3.53	-4.59 to -2.47	< 0.001
		All GI cancers	-1.4	-2.26 to -0.54	0.001	-3.04	-3.76 to -2.32	< 0.001	-3.00	-3.72 to -2.28	< 0.001
	Male	Colon and rectum cancer	3.66	2.87 to 4.45	< 0.001	1.14	0.62 to 1.67	< 0.001	1.23	0.71 to 1.75	< 0.001
		Esophageal cancer	-1.91	-2.30 to -1.51	< 0.001	-2.39	-2.80 to -1.97	< 0.001	-2.38	-2.79 to -1.97	< 0.001
		Gallbladder and biliary tract cancer	0.6	0.30 to 0.89	< 0.001	0.31	0.02 to 0.61	0.037	0.32	0.02 to 0.61	0.035
		Liver cancer	-3.14	-3.56 to -2.71	< 0.001	-3.63	-4.16 to -3.09	< 0.001	-3.62	-4.15 to -3.09	< 0.001
		Pancreatic cancer	2.06	1.52 to 2.59	< 0.001	1.91	1.32 to 2.52	< 0.001	1.92	1.32 to 2.52	< 0.001
		Stomach cancer	-0.69	-1.33 to -0.04	0.038	-2.46	-3.11 to -1.81	< 0.001	-2.43	-3.08 to -1.78	< 0.001
		All GI cancers	-0.7	-1.03 to -0.36	< 0.001	-2.26	-2.73 to -1.79	< 0.001	-2.23	-2.70 to -1.76	< 0.001
50-54 years	Overall	Colon and rectum cancer	2.92	2.65 to 3.20	< 0.001	0.45	0.22 to 0.67	< 0.001	0.54	0.32 to 0.75	< 0.001
		Esophageal cancer	-2.18	-2.47 to -1.88	< 0.001	-2.61	-2.90 to -2.32	< 0.001	-2.60	-2.89 to -2.31	< 0.001
		Gallbladder and biliary tract cancer	0.21	-0.04 to 0.45	0.094	-0.04	-0.28 to 0.20	0.734	-0.04	-0.27 to 0.20	0.752
		Liver cancer	-3.70	-4.01 to -3.39	< 0.001	-4.10	-4.38 to -3.82	< 0.001	-4.10	-4.38 to -3.82	< 0.001
		Pancreatic cancer	1.03	0.71 to 1.36	< 0.001	0.98	0.66 to 1.30	< 0.001	0.98	0.67 to 1.30	< 0.001
		Stomach cancer	-1.40	-1.74 to -1.09	< 0.001	-2.92	-3.20 to -2.64	< 0.001	-2.89	-3.17 to -2.61	< 0.001
		All GI cancers	-1.07	-1.29 to -0.86	< 0.001	-2.54	-2.73 to -2.35	< 0.001	-2.51	-2.70 to -2.32	< 0.001
	Female	Colon and rectum cancer	1.48	1.22 to 1.73	< 0.001	-1.01	-1.45 to -0.58	< 0.001	-0.92	-1.33 to -0.50	< 0.001
		Esophageal cancer	-3.93	-4.36 to -3.49	< 0.001	-5.18	-5.72 to -4.63	< 0.001	-5.15	-5.70 to -4.60	< 0.001
		Gallbladder and biliary tract cancer	-0.60	-1.27 to 0.08	0.084	-0.92	-1.57 to -0.25	0.007	-0.91	-1.57 to -0.25	0.007
		Liver cancer	-4.68	-4.87 to -4.48	< 0.001	-5.00	-5.44 to -4.56	< 0.001	-5.00	-5.42 to -4.57	< 0.001
		Pancreatic cancer	0.63	0.23 to 1.04	0.002	0.57	0.16 to 0.98	0.006	0.57	0.18 to 0.97	0.005
		Stomach cancer	-2.39	-2.67 to -2.10	< 0.001	-3.71	-3.96 to -3.46	< 0.001	-3.69	-3.93 to -3.45	< 0.001
		All GI cancers	-1.58	-1.83 to -1.32	< 0.001	-3.21	-3.56 to -2.87	< 0.001	-3.18	-3.51 to -2.85	< 0.001
	Male	Colon and rectum cancer	3.93	3.65 to 4.21	< 0.001	1.47	1.21 to 1.73	< 0.001	1.52	1.14 to 1.89	< 0.001
		Esophageal cancer	-1.61	-1.85 to -1.36	< 0.001	-1.99	-2.30 to -1.69	< 0.001	-1.99	-2.29 to -1.68	< 0.001
		Gallbladder and biliary tract cancer	0.82	0.37 to 1.27	< 0.001	0.65	0.44 to 0.86	< 0.001	0.65	0.45 to 0.86	< 0.001
		Liver cancer	-3.34	-3.65 to -3.02	< 0.001	-3.74	-4.05 to -3.43	< 0.001	-3.74	-4.04 to -3.43	< 0.001
		Pancreatic cancer	1.36	0.93 to 1.79	< 0.001	1.31	0.88 to 1.75	< 0.001	1.31	0.88 to 1.74	< 0.001
		Stomach cancer	-0.94	-1.31 to -0.57	< 0.001	-2.55	-2.81 to -2.28	< 0.001	-2.52	-2.79 to -2.25	< 0.001
		All GI cancers	-0.78	-0.97 to -0.58	< 0.001	-2.21	-2.44 to -1.97	< 0.001	-2.18	-2.41 to -1.95	< 0.001
55-59years	Overall	Colon and rectum cancer	2.81	2.14 to 3.49	< 0.001	0.37	-0.16 to 0.89	0.169	0.46	-0.06 to 0.98	0.081
		Esophageal cancer	-2.27	-2.73 to -1.80	< 0.001	-2.65	-3.11 to -2.19	< 0.001	-2.65	-3.11 to -2.18	< 0.001
		Gallbladder and biliary tract cancer	0.391	-0.22 to 1.01	0.209	0.09	-0.54 to 0.71	0.788	0.08	-0.55 to 0.72	0.797
		Liver cancer	-3.59	-3.81 to -3.38	< 0.001	-3.92	-4.47 to -3.37	< 0.001	-3.92	-4.46 to -3.37	< 0.001
		Pancreatic cancer	1.13	0.84 to 1.41	< 0.001	1.08	0.80 to 1.36	< 0.001	1.08	0.79 to 1.36	< 0.001
		Stomach cancer	-1.50	-2.06 to -1.94	< 0.001	-2.89	-3.45 to -2.33	< 0.001	-2.87	-3.43 to -2.31	< 0.001
		All GI cancers	-1.00	-1.26 to -0.75	< 0.001	-2.37	-2.68 to -2.07	< 0.001	-2.34	-2.65 to -2.04	< 0.001
	Female	Colon and rectum cancer	1.74	0.72 to 2.78	< 0.001	-0.56	-1.25 to 0.12	0.108	-0.47	-1.15 to 0.21	0.176
		Esophageal cancer	-4.12	-4.71 to -3.52	< 0.001	-4.99	-5.71 to -4.26	< 0.001	-4.97	-5.70 to -4.24	< 0.001
		Gallbladder and biliary tract cancer	-0.43	-1.58 to 0.74	0.471	-0.79	-1.96 to 0.40	0.193	-0.79	-1.97 to 0.41	0.197
		Liver cancer	-4.47	-4.63 to -4.30	< 0.001	-4.71	-5.23 to -4.18	< 0.001	-4.71	-5.23 to -4.18	< 0.001
		Pancreatic cancer	0.91	0.30 to 1.52	< 0.001	0.85	0.24 to 1.47	0.006	0.85	0.23 to 1.47	0.007
		Stomach cancer	-2.43	-3.22 to -1.63	< 0.001	-3.59	-4.41 to -2.76	< 0.001	-3.57	-4.40 to -2.74	< 0.001
		All GI cancers	-1.54	-2.14 to -0.94	< 0.001	-3.05	-3.59 to -2.51	< 0.001	-3.01	-3.55 to -2.47	< 0.001
	Male	Colon and rectum cancer	3.64	3.31 to 3.97	< 0.001	1.25	0.84 to 1.66	< 0.001	1.33	0.77 to 1.89	< 0.001
		Esophageal cancer	-1.68	-2.00 to -1.36	< 0.001	-1.97	-2.30 to -1.65	< 0.001	-1.97	-2.30 to -1.64	< 0.001
		Gallbladder and biliary tract cancer	1.09	0.88 to 1.29	< 0.001	0.76	0.42 to 1.09	< 0.001	0.75	0.41 to 1.09	< 0.001
		Liver cancer	-3.25	-3.50 to -3.00	< 0.001	-3.60	-4.17 to -3.03	< 0.001	-3.6	-4.16 to -3.04	< 0.001
		Pancreatic cancer	1.37	1.09 to 1.65	< 0.001	1.33	1.05 to 1.61	< 0.001	1.33	1.05 to 1.61	< 0.001
		Stomach cancer	-1.00	-1.28 to -0.73	< 0.001	-2.55	-2.84 to -2.26	< 0.001	-2.53	-2.82 to -2.23	< 0.001
		All GI cancers	-0.76	-1.14 to -0.38	< 0.001	-2.04	-2.29 to -1.79	< 0.001	-2.01	-2.26 to -1.76	< 0.001
60-64 years	Overall	Colon and rectum cancer	3.02	2.65 to 3.40	< 0.001	0.66	0.27 to 1.06	0.001	0.77	0.38 to 1.15	< 0.001
		Esophageal cancer	-1.90	-2.10 to -1.70	< 0.001	-2.28	-2.48 to -2.09	< 0.001	-2.28	-2.47 to -2.08	< 0.001
		Gallbladder and biliary tract cancer	0.61	0.21 to 1.01	0.003	0.37	0.15 to 0.59	0.001	0.37	0.14 to 0.59	0.001
		Liver cancer	-3.27	-3.50 to -3.04	< 0.001	-3.65	-4.13 to -3.16	< 0.001	-3.65	-4.13 to -3.16	< 0.001
		Pancreatic cancer	1.69	1.55 to 1.83	< 0.001	1.65	1.48 to 1.82	< 0.001	1.64	1.48 to 1.81	< 0.001
		Stomach cancer	-1.07	-1.39 to -0.74	< 0.001	-2.43	-2.67 to -2.19	< 0.001	-2.41	-2.64 to -2.17	< 0.001
		All GI cancers	-0.67	-0.90 to -0.43	< 0.001	-1.97	-2.14 to -1.80	< 0.001	-1.93	-2.10 to -1.76	< 0.001
	Female	Colon and rectum cancer	2.09	1.45 to 2.74	< 0.001	-0.41	-0.85 to 0.03	0.07	-0.31	-0.75 to 0.13	0.167
		Esophageal cancer	-3.61	-4.18 to -3.04	< 0.001	-4.48	-5.06 to -3.89	< 0.001	-4.46	-5.05 to -3.87	< 0.001
		Gallbladder and biliary tract cancer	0.10	-0.40 to 0.60	0.694	-0.23	-0.71 to 0.26	0.359	-0.23	-0.71 to 0.26	0.363
		Liver cancer	-3.99	-4.15 to -3.83	< 0.001	-4.23	-4.47 to -3.98	< 0.001	-4.23	-4.47 to -3.98	< 0.001
		Pancreatic cancer	1.4	1.19 to 1.61	< 0.001	1.35	1.11 to 1.59	< 0.001	1.33	1.13 to 1.53	< 0.001
		Stomach cancer	-2.21	-2.70 to -1.71	< 0.001	-3.30	-3.78 to -2.82	< 0.001	-3.29	-3.77 to -2.81	< 0.001
		All GI cancers	-1.32	-1.61 to -1.02	< 0.001	-2.67	-3.00 to -2.34	< 0.001	-2.63	-2.96 to -2.31	< 0.001
	Male	Colon and rectum cancer	3.77	3.43 to 4.12	< 0.001	1.43	1.09 to 1.77	< 0.001	1.53	1.20 to 1.86	< 0.001
		Esophageal cancer	-1.26	-1.41 to -1.10	< 0.001	-1.55	-1.72 to -1.39	< 0.001	-1.57	-1.70 to -1.44	< 0.001
		Gallbladder and biliary tract cancer	1.14	0.86 to 1.43	< 0.001	0.90	0.60 to 1.19	< 0.001	0.90	0.60 to 1.19	< 0.001
		Liver cancer	-2.94	-3.32 to -2.56	< 0.001	-3.35	-4.02 to -2.68	< 0.001	-3.35	-4.01 to -2.68	< 0.001
		Pancreatic cancer	1.93	1.74 to 2.12	< 0.001	1.88	1.69 to 2.07	< 0.001	1.88	1.69 to 2.07	< 0.001
		Stomach cancer	-0.58	-0.97 to -0.19	0.004	-2.08	-2.31 to -1.85	< 0.001	-1.98	-2.24 to -1.73	< 0.001
		All GI cancers	-0.32	-0.56 to -0.09	0.006	-1.62	-1.82 to -1.43	< 0.001	-1.59	-1.77 to -1.40	< 0.001
15-64 years	Overall	Colon and rectum cancer	0.77	0.38 to 1.15	< 0.001	2.11	2.00 to 2.23	< 0.001	1.98	1.89 to 2.07	< 0.001
		Esophageal cancer	-0.23	-0.39 to -0.07	0.004	-0.64	-0.83 to -0.46	< 0.001	-0.72	-0.88 to -0.56	< 0.001
		Gallbladder and biliary tract cancer	2.05	1.85 to 2.26	< 0.001	1.79	1.51 to 2.07	< 0.001	1.59	1.26 to 1.93	< 0.001
		Liver cancer	-1.82	-2.09 to -1.56	< 0.001	-2.24	-2.75 to -1.72	< 0.001	-2.38	-2.84 to -1.91	< 0.001
		Pancreatic cancer	3.18	2.98 to 3.37	< 0.001	3.15	2.95 to 3.35	< 0.001	3.02	2.80 to 3.24	< 0.001
		Stomach cancer	0.63	0.46 to 0.80	< 0.001	-0.93	-1.13 to -0.73	< 0.001	-1.03	-1.15 to -0.90	< 0.001
		All GI cancers	0.88	0.72 to 1.03	< 0.001	-0.57	-0.73 to -0.41	< 0.001	-0.69	-0.83 to -0.56	< 0.001
	Female	Colon and rectum cancer	-0.31	-0.75 to 0.13	0.167	0.96	0.84 to 1.08	< 0.001	0.80	0.70 to 0.91	< 0.001
		Esophageal cancer	-1.78	-2.10 to -1.46	< 0.001	-2.84	-3.19 to -2.49	< 0.001	-2.89	-3.19 to -2.58	< 0.001
		Gallbladder and biliary tract cancer	1.56	1.21 to 1.91	< 0.001	1.22	0.87 to 1.57	< 0.001	1.01	0.87 to 1.14	< 0.001
		Liver cancer	-2.77	-3.12 to -2.43	< 0.001	-3.04	-3.43 to -2.65	< 0.001	-3.24	-3.61 to -2.86	< 0.001
		Pancreatic cancer	2.84	2.67 to 3.00	< 0.001	2.80	2.63 to 2.96	< 0.001	2.61	2.40 to 2.83	< 0.001
		Stomach cancer	-0.42	-0.52 to -0.32	< 0.001	-1.79	-1.88 to -1.70	< 0.001	-1.90	-2.15 to -1.65	< 0.001
		All GI cancers	0.38	0.15 to 0.60	0.001	-1.23	-1.31 to -1.15	< 0.001	-1.37	-1.48 to -1.25	< 0.001
	Male	Colon and rectum cancer	1.53	1.20 to 1.86	< 0.001	2.87	2.72 to 3.01	< 0.001	2.74	2.59 to 2.89	< 0.001
		Esophageal cancer	0.21	0.03 to 0.39	0.023	-0.15	-0.36 to -0.06	0.174	-0.23	-0.43 to -0.03	0.022
		Gallbladder and biliary tract cancer	2.51	2.31 to 2.72	< 0.001	2.28	2.06 to 2.51	< 0.001	2.06	1.78 to 2.34	< 0.001
		Liver cancer	-1.54	-1.85 to -1.23	< 0.001	-2.00	-2.43 to -1.56	< 0.001	-2.11	-2.50 to -1.72	< 0.001
		Pancreatic cancer	3.40	3.17 to 3.62	< 0.001	3.37	3.15 to 3.59	< 0.001	3.26	3.03 to 3.49	< 0.001
		Stomach cancer	1.06	0.85 to 1.28	< 0.001	-0.57	-0.80 to -0.33	< 0.001	-0.62	-0.84 to -0.40	< 0.001
		All GI cancers	1.12	0.96 to 1.28	< 0.001	-0.33	-0.49 to -0.17	< 0.001	-0.41	-0.57 to -0.25	< 0.001

GI: Gastrointestinal; CIR: Crude incidence rate; CMR: Crude mortality rate; CDR: Crude disability-adjusted life-years rate; AAPC: Average annual percent change; 95%UI: 95% uncertainty interval; NA: Not available.