Prognostic prediction models for postoperative patients with stage I to III colorectal cancer based on machine learning

Figure 5 Prediction of distant metastasis-free survival by machine learning models. The plots show the areas under the curve (AUCs) and their 95%CI. A: The linear regression (LR) model in the training set [class 1 (cl 1): Before: 0.81 (0.77-0.85), after: 0.77 (0.72-0.81); class 2 (cl 2): Before: 0.80 (0.75-0.84), after: 0.73 (0.67-0.79); class 3 (cl 3): Before: 0.90 (0.83-0.96), after: 0.84 (0.75-0.91)]; B: The LR model in the testing set [cl 1: Before: 0.65 (0.56-0.73), after: 0.67 (0.58-0.76); cl 2: Before: 0.63 (0.54-0.71), after: 0.63 (0.54-0.72); cl 3: Before: 0.76 (0.47-0.95), after: 0.79 (0.48-0.95)]; C: The linear discriminant analysis (LDA) model in the training set [cl 1: Before: 0.82 (0.78-0.85), after: 0.77 (0.72-0.81); cl 2: Before: 0.81 (0.77-0.84), after: 0.74 (0.68-0.79); cl 3: Before: 0.90 (0.84-0.96), after: 0.83 (0.75-0.90)]; D: The LDA model in the testing set [cl 1: Before: 0.64 (0.56-0.72), after: 0.65 (0.56-0.74); cl 2: Before: 0.63 (0.55-0.71), after: 0.62 (0.53-0.71); cl 3: Before: 0.74 (0.45-0.93), after: 0.79 (0.48-0.95)]; E: The eXtreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) model in the training set [cl 1: Before: 0.96 (0.94-0.97), after: 0.80 (0.75-0.84); cl 2: Before: 0.96 (0.94-0.98), after: 0.76 (0.70-0.81); cl 3: Before: 0.97 (0.96-0.99), after: 0.85 (0.79-0.91)]; F: The XGBoost model in the testing set [cl 1: Before: 0.66 (0.57-0.75), after: 0.68 (0.60-0.76); cl 2: Before: 0.65 (0.55-0.74), after: 0.64 (0.55-0.73); cl 3: Before: 0.76 (0.47-0.93), after: 0.80 (0.53-0.94)]; G: The categorical features and gradient boosting (CatBoost) model in the training set [cl 1: Before: 0.95 (0.93-0.96), after: 0.79 (0.74-0.83); cl 2: Before: 0.96 (0.94-0.97), after: 0.77 (0.72-0.82); cl 3: Before: 0.98 (0.97-1.00), after: 0.87 (0.81-0.92)]; H: The CatBoost model in the testing set [cl 1: Before: 0.65 (0.56-0.74), after: 0.67 (0.59-0.75); cl 2: Before: 0.62 (0.54-0.71), after: 0.63 (0.54-0.72); cl 3: Before: 0.75 (0.50-0.92), after: 0.78 (0.54-0.94)]. The curves of the models constructed with the full-variable datasets and the datasets containing only important variables are depicted with solid lines and dashed lines, respectively (abbreviated as “before” and “after” in this annotation).