Rising incidence, progression and changing patterns of liver disease in Wales 1999-2019

Table 4 Progression of liver disease over 10 years by aetiology

	0	6 mo	1 yr	2 yr	3 yr	5 yr	10 yr
ArLD
Stage 1	48.75	40.27	36.14	31.54	28.36	24.21	19.18
Stage 2	16.52	14.12	12.93	11.75	10.82	9.65	7.87
Stage 3	13.47	13.93	13.92	12.8	11.86	10.18	8.1
Stage 4	4.49	4.8	5.09	5.3	5.33	4.97	4.25
Stage 5	0.63	0.5	0.49	0.44	0.38	0.34	0.34
Stage 6	16.14	26.38	31.43	38.17	43.25	50.64	60.25
NAFLD
Stage 1	86.3	82.52	80.42	77.98	76.25	73.93	70.7
Stage 2	2.54	2.28	2.31	2.21	2.22	2.18	1.98
Stage 3	2.87	2.99	2.87	2.7	2.52	2.29	2.07
Stage 4	0.82	0.93	0.98	1.01	1.01	0.95	0.91
Stage 5	0.4	0.38	0.36	0.28	0.3	0.22	0.24
Stage 6	7.07	10.89	13.07	15.82	17.71	20.43	24.1
Autoimmune liver disease
Stage 1	72.94	66.33	63.31	59.57	56.44	51.89	44.83
Stage 2	10.79	10.53	10.12	9.67	9.07	8.51	7.73
Stage 3	8.7	9.29	9.41	9.07	8.77	7.69	6.83
Stage 4	2.43	2.8	2.84	2.95	3.02	3.21	2.99
Stage 5	0.86	0.9	0.82	0.67	0.63	0.56	0.6
Stage 6	4.29	10.15	13.51	18.07	22.06	28.14	37.03
HBV
Stage 1	88.96	86.25	84.58	82.6	81.46	79.69	78.02
Stage 2	2.5	1.77	1.98	1.98	1.88	1.88	1.88
Stage 3	2.71	2.71	2.5	2.5	2.4	1.98	2.08
Stage 4	0.94	1.04	1.04	0.94	0.94	1.04	1.25
Stage 5	2.19	1.46	1.25	1.25	1.25	0.94	0.83
Stage 6	2.71	6.77	8.65	10.73	12.08	14.48	15.94
HCV
Stage 1	88.02	85.5	83.54	80.68	78.51	75.38	71.59
Stage 2	4.15	3.88	3.94	4.06	4.12	4.06	3.61
Stage 3	2.8	2.59	2.53	2.53	2.59	2.35	2.29
Stage 4	0.87	1.05	1.14	1.17	1.2	1.17	1.2
Stage 5	1.38	1.2	1.17	1.11	1.08	1.17	1.17
Stage 6	2.77	5.78	7.67	10.44	12.49	15.86	20.13
Metabolic
Stage 1	82.03	67.35	63.3	59.25	56.3	52.51	47.7
Stage 2	1.73	1.37	1.29	1.21	1.16	1.11	1.05
Stage 3	1.36	1.24	1.16	1.2	1.07	0.99	0.96
Stage 4	0.63	0.52	0.53	0.57	0.56	0.56	0.49
Stage 5	0.56	0.4	0.24	0.23	0.23	0.28	0.23
Stage 6	13.69	29.12	33.48	37.54	40.69	44.55	49.57
Congestive hepatopathy
Stage 1	70.36	55.3	50.05	43.44	38.58	34.79	31.1
Stage 2	2.24	1.65	1.65	1.07	0.78	0.58	0.58
Stage 3	3.21	3.01	2.62	2.33	2.04	1.94	1.46
Stage 4	2.04	1.75	1.75	1.75	1.94	1.85	2.04
Stage 5	0.68	0.29	0.29	0.29	0.29	0.19	0.19
Stage 6	21.48	38	43.63	51.12	56.37	60.64	64.63
Toxic
Stage 1	80.87	76.09	73.96	71.31	69.48	67.45	62.87
Stage 2	1.22	0.92	1.02	0.81	0.71	0.61	0.61
Stage 3	1.63	1.93	1.73	1.42	1.73	1.53	1.42
Stage 4	3.46	3.15	3.36	3.26	3.36	3.15	2.95
Stage 5	0.31	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.1
Stage 6	12.51	17.7	19.74	22.99	24.52	27.06	32.04
Miscellaneous
Stage 1	91.24	80.46	75.76	70.45	67.05	63.04	57.4
Stage 2	0.62	0.57	0.49	0.42	0.35	0.31	0.29
Stage 3	0.94	0.97	0.99	0.94	0.94	0.9	0.75
Stage 4	0.37	0.34	0.37	0.39	0.39	0.35	0.37
Stage 5	0.62	0.64	0.57	0.45	0.38	0.35	0.28
Stage 6	6.21	17.02	21.82	27.35	30.89	35.04	40.91

The percentage of the individuals with a liver disease diagnosis who have progressed from aetiology only (stage 1), aetiology and cirrhosis (stage 2), aetiology, cirrhosis and portal hypertension (stage 3), aetiology, cirrhosis and portal hypertension and decompensation (stage 4), aetiology and liver cancer stage 5, and aetiology and mortality by any cause (stage 6). At baseline entry of registry between 1999 and 2019 and up to 10 yr of follow up. ArLD: Alcohol-related liver disease; NAFLD: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease; HBV: Hepatitis B virus; HCV: Hepatitis C virus.