Prognostic model for esophagogastric variceal rebleeding after endoscopic treatment in liver cirrhosis: A Chinese multicenter study

Table 3 Model performance in sensitivity analysis and subgroup analyses

	C-index	AUC (95%CI)	Brier score (95%CI)
Sensitivity analysis
Exclude patients underwent emergency endoscopy
6 weeks	0.847	0.847 (0.781-0.913)	0.053 (0.036-0.07)
1 year	0.78	0.8 (0.749-0.85)	0.136 (0.117-0.156)
2 years	0.724	0.75 (0.691-0.81)	0.188 (0.163-0.213)
Subgroup analysis
Etiology of cirrhosis
Chronic HBV infection
6 weeks	0.9	0.915 (0.858-0.973)	0.04 (0.021-0.059)
1 year	0.779	0.793 (0.718-0.867)	0.137 (0.11-0.164)
2 years	0.717	0.731 (0.646-0.816)	0.195 (0.158-0.232)
Autoimmune liver disease
6 weeks	0.913	0.884 (0.761-1)	0.048 (0.011-0.085)
1 year	0.84	0.892 (0.814-0.97)	0.122 (0.083-0.162)
2 years	0.798	0.821 (0.69-0.953)	0.154 (0.103-0.206)
Alcohol-related
6 weeks	0.803	0.817 (0.705-0.929)	0.093 (0.04-0.147)
1 year	0.786	0.828 (0.723-0.934)	0.138 (0.094-0.183)
2 years	0.757	0.783 (0.66-0.907)	0.174 (0.126-0.222)
Other
6 weeks	0.745	0.718 (0.532-0.903)	0.067 (0.025-0.109)
1 year	0.812	0.793 (0.695-0.892)	0.153 (0.11-0.196)
2 years	0.743	0.777 (0.658-0.897)	0.2 (0.141-0.259)
Types of varices
EV
6 weeks	0.862	0.868 (0.796-0.94)	0.061 (0.036-0.087)
1 year	0.836	0.854 (0.799-0.909)	0.129 (0.103-0.155)
2 years	0.776	0.822 (0.747-0.896)	0.164 (0.131-0.197)
EV combined with GV
6 weeks	0.845	0.823 (0.727-0.919)	0.05 (0.029-0.071)
1 year	0.768	0.791 (0.726-0.857)	0.144 (0.119-0.17)
2 years	0.715	0.726 (0.65-0.802)	0.203 (0.169-0.237)
Sex
Male
6 weeks	0.872	0.894 (0.845-0.943)	0.062 (0.04-0.084)
1 year	0.796	0.809 (0.75-0.869)	0.139 (0.115-0.163)
2 years	0.719	0.724 (0.651-0.798)	0.2 (0.167-0.234)
Female
6 weeks	0.703	0.71 (0.539-0.882)	0.044 (0.02-0.067)
1 year	0.781	0.831 (0.764-0.899)	0.136 (0.108-0.164)
2 years	0.772	0.831 (0.756-0.907)	0.164 (0.13-0.197)
Age
< 60
6 weeks	0.889	0.862 (0.77-0.954)	0.046 (0.025-0.067)
1 year	0.771	0.783 (0.711-0.854)	0.134 (0.107-0.161)
2 years	0.706	0.731 (0.649-0.812)	0.191 (0.155-0.227)
≥ 60
6 weeks	0.814	0.826 (0.742-0.909)	0.064 (0.039-0.089)
1 year	0.801	0.848 (0.792-0.904)	0.142 (0.117-0.166)
2 years	0.761	0.796 (0.723-0.87)	0.181 (0.150-0.213)
Use of NSBB
Non-NSBB group
6 weeks	0.846	0.837 (0.753-0.921)	0.079 (0.046-0.113)
1 year	0.802	0.835 (0.762-0.908)	0.146 (0.114-0.178)
2 years	0.794	0.871 (0.805-0.937)	0.141 (0.11-0.171)
NSBB group
6 weeks	0.85	0.846 (0.754-0.939)	0.042 (0.025-0.06)
1 year	0.79	0.806 (0.75-0.862)	0.134 (0.112-0.156)
2 years	0.708	0.705 (0.631-0.78)	0.21 (0.177-0.242)

C-index: Concordance index; AUC: Area under the receiver operating curve; CI: Confidence interval; HBV: Hepatitis B virus; EV: Esophageal varices; GV: Gastric varices; NSBB: Nonselective beta-blocker.