Prognostic model for esophagogastric variceal rebleeding after endoscopic treatment in liver cirrhosis: A Chinese multicenter study

Table 1 Baseline characteristics and outcomes of patients

Characteristic	Derivation cohort (n = 322)	Missing data in derivation cohort (%)	Validation cohort (n = 155)	Missing data in validation cohort (%)	P value
Demographics
Age (year)	58.38 ± 11.86	0	57.7 ± 13.37	0	0.57
Sex, n (%)		0		0	0.36
Female	132 (40.99)		56 (36.13)
Male	190 (59.01)		99 (63.87)
Smoking history, n (%)	52 (16.25)	0.6	26 (16.77)	0	0.99
Drinking history, n (%)	74 (23.12)	0.6	30 (19.35)	0	0.42
Surroundings, n (%)		0		0	0.67
Rural	93 (28.88)		50 (32.26)
Suburban	58 (18.01)		24 (15.48)
Urban	171 (53.11)		81 (52.26)
Symptom, n (%)		0		0	0.44
Melena or hematochezia	115 (35.71)		49 (31.61)
Hematemesis	207 (64.29)		106 (68.39)
Etiology, n (%)		0		0	0.8
Chronic HBV infection	156 (48.45)		69 (44.52)
Autoimmune liver disease	55 (17.08)		31 (20.00)
Alcohol-related	50 (15.53)		23 (14.84)
Other	61 (18.94)		32 (20.65)
Course of cirrhosis (year)	2 (0.5-6)	3.7	2 (0.2-6)	0	0.46
Family history of cirrhosis, n (%)	52 (16.20)	0.3	7 (4.52)	0	< 0.01
Endoscopic treatment and presentation
Received emergency endoscopic hemostasis, n (%)	28 (8.70)	0	10 (6.45)	0	0.5
Types of varices, n (%)		0		0	< 0.01
EV	177 (54.97)		28 (18.06)
EV combined with GV	145 (45.03)		127 (81.94)
Red color sign, n (%)	302 (93.79)	0	150 (96.77)	0	0.25
Bleeding signs, n (%)	49 (15.22)	0	29 (18.71)	0	0.4
Form of varices, n (%)		0		0	0.57
F1	56 (17.39)		23 (14.84)
F2-F3	266 (82.61)		132 (85.16)
Location of varices, n (%)		0.3		0	< 0.01
Low to middle	252 (78.50)		146 (94.19)
High	69 (21.50)		9 (5.81)
Numbers of varices	4 (4-4)		4 (4-4)		0.73
Diameter of varices (cm)	0.9 (0.8-1)	0.6	1 (0.8-1)	0	0.53
Number of EVL (times)	2 (1-3)	0	2 (1.5-3)	0	0.05
Received sclerotherapy injections, n (%)	139 (43.17)	0	74 (47.74)	0	0.4
Received tissue glue injections, n (%)	125 (38.82)	0	65 (41.94)	0	0.58
Comorbidities and complications
Ascites, n (%)	220 (68.32)	0	95 (61.29)	0	0.16
Bacterial infection, n (%)	48 (14.91)	0	12 (7.74)	0	0.04
Encephalopathy, n (%)	13 (4.04)	0	3 (1.94)	0	0.36
Diabetes, n (%)	67 (20.87)	0.3	31 (20.00)	0	0.92
Hypertension, n (%)	78 (24.30)	0.3	20 (12.90)	0	0.01
Hemorrhagic shock, n (%)	10 (3.12)	0.3	2 (1.29)	0	0.38
Heart disease, n (%)	16 (4.98)	0.3	7 (4.52)	0	1.00
Laboratory tests
Total bilirubin (μmol/L)	21.3 (15-32.02)	3.1	15.8 (10.85-20.85)	0	< 0.01
Alanine aminotransferase (U/L)	25 (17-36)	4.3	21 (15-30)	0	0.01
Aspartate aminotransferase (U/L)	35 (26-47)	4.3	28 (21-38.5)	0	< 0.01
Alkaline phosphatase (U/L)	87 (68-130)	5	83 (63.25-107)	0.6	0.05
Total protein (g/L)	62.45 ± 8.92	3.8	62.9 ± 9.16	0	0.62
Albumin (g/L)	31.89 ± 6.07	3.1	35.3 ± 5.94	0	< 0.01
Globulin (g/L)	29.55 (25.9-34.42)	5.6	27 (23-32)	0	< 0.01
A/G	1.05 (0.87-1.3)	5.6	1.33 (1.08-1.59)	0	< 0.01
Blood urea nitrogen (mmol/L)	5.72 (4.2-7.72)	6.8	5.2 (4.1-6.18)	0.6	< 0.01
Creatinine (μmoI/L)	65.4 (55-79)	4.7	69 (57.25-80.5)	0.6	0.14
Uric acid (μmoI/L)	298 (238-372)	4.7	288 (239-357)	0	0.26
Total cholesterol (mmol/L)	3.17 (2.61-3.94)	7.5	3.17 (2.6-3.94)	25.8	0.94
White blood cell (× 109/L)	3.1 (2.09-4.75)	5.6	2.66 (1.92-4.47)	0	0.07
Neutrophil (× 109/L)	1.96 (1.25-3.52)	5.3	1.6 (1.1-2.77)	0.6	< 0.01
Lymphocyte (× 109/L)	0.7 (0.5-1.03)	5.9	0.7 (0.5-1)	1.9	0.69
Red blood cell (× 109/L)	3.05 ± 0.74	3.4	3.19 ± 0.77	0	0.08
Hemoglobin (g/L)	88.37 ± 24.42	1.9	89.1 ± 22.33	0	0.76
Platelet count (× 109/L)	68 (45.75-91.25)	3.1	68 (45.5-103)	0	0.68
Prothrombin time (second)	14.8 (13.6-16.25)	3.4	14.4 (13.7-15.6)	0	0.07
INR (unit)	1.27 (1.15-1.4)	4	1.26 (1.17-1.37)	0	0.48
D-dipolymer (μg/mL)	1.45 (0.56-3.34)	7.1	1.1 (0.45-2.37)	1.9	0.12
Thrombin time (second)	17.8 (16.9-19.1)	6.5	17.8 (16.67-18.72)	1.9	0.34
Fibrinogen (g/L)	200.26 ± 80.04	5.6	185.67 ± 69.84	1.9	0.06
CTP (points)	7 (6-8)	0	6 (6-7)	0	< 0.01
CTP class, n (%)		0		0	< 0.01
A (5-6)	101 (31.37)		83 (53.55)
B (7-9)	190 (59.01)		69 (44.52)
C (10-13)	31 (9.63)		3 (1.94)
MELD (points)	11 (9-13)	0	9 (8-11)	0	< 0.01
Radiological features
Portal vein thrombosis, n (%)	68 (21.12)	1.2	49 (31.61)	0	0.02
Splenic vein diameter (mm)	9.6 ± 3.45	6.8	9.08 ± 3.94	4.5	0.16
Inner diameter of portal vein trunk (mm)	13.17 ± 2.34	6.5	12.7 ± 2.97	4.5	0.07
Use of medication
Use of NSBB, n (%)	314 (65.83)	0	204 (63.35)	0	0.12
Use of PPI, n (%)	450 (94.34)	0	306 (95.03)	0	0.47
Use of antibiotics, n (%)	335 (70.23)	0	219 (68.01)	0	0.16
Outcomes
Rebleeding within 6 weeks, n (%)	26 (8.07)	0	7 (4.52)	0	0.21
Rebleeding within 6 months, n (%)	60 (18.63)	0	22 (14.19)	0	0.28
Rebleeding within 1 year, n (%)	83 (25.78)	0	36 (23.23)	0	0.62
Rebleeding within 2 years, n (%)	111 (34.47)	0	51 (32.90)	0	0.81
Follow-up time (day)	408.5 (322-885)	0	447 (366-1108)	0	0.06

EV: Esophageal varices; GV: Gastric varices; EVL: Endoscopic variceal ligation; INR: International normalized ratio; A/G: Albumin/globulin; CTP: Child-Turcotte-Pugh score; MELD: Model for end-stage liver disease score; NSBB: Non-selective beta-blockers; PPI: Proton pump inhibitor.