Evaluation of scoring systems and hematological parameters in the severity stratification of early-phase acute pancreatitis

Table 4 Statistical data of receiver-operating characteristics curve analysis for predicting severe acute pancreatitis by different parameters

Variables	AUC (95%CI)	P value	Cut-off value	Sensitivity, %	Specificity, %	PPV, %	NPV, %
CRP48	0.802 (0.734-0.870)	< 0.001	118.25	76.00	76.51	28.15	96.34
Ca2+	0.736 (0.643-0.828)	< 0.001	2.045	60.00	84.99	32.61	94.61
PNI48	0.871 (0.826-0.916)	< 0.001	38.53	90.00	74.33	29.80	98.40
CRP48 + Ca2+ + PNI48	0.892 (0.843-0.940)	< 0.001	0.15	78.00	86.68	40.86	96.76
APACHE II	0.799 (0.735-0.864)	< 0.001	7.50	72.00	77.97	28.35	95.83
SOFA	0.783 (0.711-0.856)	< 0.001	1.50	72.00	74.09	25.17	95.63
BISAP	0.895 (0.862-0.929)	< 0.001	1.50	94.00	79.18	35.34	99.09
CTSI	0.931 (0.900-0.962)	< 0.001	4.50	80.00	89.83	48.78	97.38
Ranson	0.914 (0.878-0.949)	< 0.001	2.50	88.00	77.97	32.59	98.17
PNI48 + Ranson	0.936 (0.909-0.962)	< 0.001	0.07	94.00	81.11	37.60	99.11

AUC: Area under the curve; CI: Confidence interval; PPV: Positive predictive value; NPV: Negative predictive value; CRP₄₈: C-reactive protein measured within 48 hours; PNI₄₈: Prognostic nutritional index measured within 48 hours; APACHE II: Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II; SOFA: Sequential organ failure assessment; BISAP: Bedside index of severity in acute pancreatitis; CTSI: Computed tomography severity index.