Optimizing prediction models for pancreatic fistula after pancreatectomy: Current status and future perspectives

Table 7 Postoperative prediction models of postoperative pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy

Ref.	Year	Country	Center	Study period	Design cohort	CR-POPF (%)	Variables6	C-index/AUC (95%CI)	Validation
Gaujoux et al[31]	2010	France	Single1	2004-2005	100	24	(3)(q)(r)	0.82
Callery et al[34]	2013	United States	Single1	2002-2007	233	13	(A)(B)(D)(o)	0.942	Internal
Xia et al[23]	2018	China	Single	2009-2017	225	17.8	(A)(B)(L)(h)	0.813 (0.737-0.889)	Internal
Xingjun et al[72]	2019	China	Multi	2014-2017	457	12.65	(A)(q)(r)	0.868	External
You et al[73]	2019	Korea	Single	2007-2016	1771	12.5	(1)(3)(12)(15)(A)(o)	0.709	Internal
Guo et al[74]	2020	China	Single	2012-2016	220	22.7	(A)(B)(o)(p)	0.793 (0.731-0.855)	Internal
Li et al[75]	2021	China	Single	2018-2020	176	21.1	(a)(e)(f)(g)(k)	0.814 (0.736-0.892)
Shen et al[76]	2021	China	Single	2016-2020	302	16.6	(3)(B)(a)(i)	0.87 (0.81-0.94)	Internal
Liu et al[77]	2021	China	Single	2016-2019	2514	7.6	(15)(18)(a)(j)	0.866 (0.737-0.996)
							(15)(18)(a)(j)	0.896 (0.814-0.978)
							(15)(18)(a)(j)	0.888 (0.806-0.971)
Huang et al[78]	2021	China	Multi	2010-2018	762	11.4	(3)(A)(a)	0.934 (0.914-0.950)	External
Guilbaud et al[79]	2021	France	Multi1	2017-2019	1823	21.2	(a)(f)	0.834 (0.769-0.900)
Honselmann et al[20]	2021	Germany	Single	2012-2017	182	16	(12)(A)(C)(c)(m)	0.903	Internal
							(12)(B)(c)(d)(m)	0.891
Suzuki et al[80]	2021	Japan	Single	2007-2012	349	17.5	(20)(B)(b)(n)
Al Abbas et al[81]	2021	United Sates	Nationwide	2014-2016	9867	13.9	(1)(2)(3)(7)(8)(A)(B)(o)	0.70 (0.69-0.71)	Internal
Yin et al[82]	2022	China	Single	2012-2016	662	16.3	(17)(A)(F)(M)(o)	0.667	Internal
							(A)(F)(a)(e)	0.809
Gu et al[24]	2023	China	Nationwide	2014-2017	36092	16.7	(4)(20)(B)(o)(s)(t)	0.855 (0.702-0.853)	External
Bannone et al[83]	2023	Italy	Single1	2016-2021	905	20.2	(A)(B)(D)(a)(o)	0.85 (0.82-0.87)
							(A)(B)(D)(a)(l)(o)	0.87 (0.84-0.89)
							(A)(B)(D)(a)(f)(l)(o)	0.90 (0.87-0.91)
Choi et al[84]	2023	Korea	Multi	2012-2020	4294	12.4	(12)(20)(46)(B)(E)(H)(I)(o)	0.739 (0.668-0.800)	Internal
van Dongen et al[85]	2023	Netherlands	Nationwide	2014-2018	3271	14.6	(1)(3)(8)(20)(o)	0.73	External
Raza et al[86]	2023	United Kingdom	Multi	2009-2019	187	12.8	(1)(a)(f)(h)	0.78	External
Mohamed et al[87]	2023	United Sates	Nationwide	2015-2018	5975	17	(1)(3)(14)(A)(B)(o)	0.72 (0.704-0.737)
Ahmad et al[88]	2023	United States	Nationwide	2014-2017	2417	12.6	(3)(11)(B)(C)(a)	0.720 (0.687-0.752)	Internal
							(3)(11)(B)(C)(a)(b)	0.758 (0.726-0.789)

¹Indicates prospective studies, others are retrospective studies.

²The study population was from the American College of Surgeons-National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database in the United States.

³Surgical procedures included pancreaticoduodenectomy and distal pancreatectomy.

⁴The surgical procedure was minimally invasive pancreaticoduodenectomy.

⁵The data is the clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula rate of total cohort.

⁶From Table 1.

AUC: Area under the curve; CI: Confidence interval; CR-POPF: Clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula.