Optimizing prediction models for pancreatic fistula after pancreatectomy: Current status and future perspectives

Table 4 Preoperative prediction models of postoperative pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy

Ref.	Year	Country	Center	Study period	Design cohort	CR-POPF (%)	Variables5	C-index/AUC (95%CI)	Validation
Wellner et al[13]	2010	Germany	Single	2006-2008	62	30.64	(2)(5)(6)(9)(47)		Internal
Yamamoto et al[14]	2011	Japan	Single	2004-2007	279	36.9	(1)(21)(25)(27)(47)	0.808 (0.757-0.860)	Internal
Roberts et al[15]	2014	United Kingdom	Single1	2007-2012	217	22.14	(3)(20)	0.832 (0.768-0.897)	Internal
Casadei et al[42]	2015	Italy	Single	2008-2012	2082	20.2	(3)(20)(47)
Zhang et al[43]	2018	China	Single		80	42.54	(38)	0.825 (0.736-0.913)	Internal
Shi et al[44]	2020	China	Multi	2009-2019	718	15.6	(20)(32)(33)(34)(35)	0.729 (0.678-0.775)	External
Yu et al[17]	2021	China	Single	2016-2018	124	25.8	(21)(23)	0.775 (0.687-0.862)	Internal
Lin et al[19]	2021	China	Single	2013-2019	175	21.1	(38)	0.801 (0.719-0.884)	Internal
							(39)	0.871 (0.816-0.926)
Tang et al[45]	2021	China	Single	2013-2019	239	19.7	(3)(20)(36)	0.823 (0.769-0.877)
Lapshyn et al[46]	2021	Germany	Single1	2012-2018	120	193	(1)(20)(22)	0.808 (0.726-0.874)	Internal
Perri et al[41]	2021	Italy	Multi	2017-2019	566	20	(3)(20)	0.70 (0.63-0.77)	External
Savin et al[47]	2021	Romania	Single	2015-2020	78	28.2	(20)(23)(32)	0.846 (0.694-0.941)
							(20)(32)(40)	0.774 (0.599-0.850)
Skawran et al[48]	2021	Switzerland	Single	2008-2018	62	27.4	(43)	0.75 (0.63-0.84)
Box et al[49]	2021	United States	Single	2013-2018	220	15.94	(3)(20)(37)	0.822
							(3)(20)(26)	0.757
							(3)(20)(26)(37)	0.844
Kolbinger et al[50]	2022	Germany	Single	2012-2021	195	28.7	(20)(24)(47)	0.82	Internal
							(20)(24)(32)(47)	0.83
Maqueda González et al[51]	2022	Spain	Single	2010-2019	103	30.1	(20)(29)	0.78 (0.68-0.87)
Zou et al[52]	2023	China	Single	2015-2021	125	17.6	(20)(28)(42)	0.903	Internal
Tian et al[53]	2023	China	Single1	2020-2021	1432	36	(20)(45)	0.866	Internal

¹Indicates prospective studies, others are retrospective studies.

²Surgical procedures included pancreaticoduodenectomy and distal pancreatectomy.

³The data is the CR-POPF rate of total cohort.

⁴The data includes biochemical leak.

⁵From Table 1.

AUC: Area under the curve; CI: Confidence interval; CR-POPF: Clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula.