Location-based prediction model for Crohn’s disease regarding a novel serological marker, anti-chitinase 3-like 1 autoantibodies

Table 8 Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses evaluating the association between clinical and serologic variables and the study end-point events (reoperation after resection) in Crohn’s disease patients. Subgroup analysis of B1 patients with colonic involvement is shown in the second half of the table

		Need for resective surgery in B1 patients with previous CD-related abdominal surgery							Need for resective surgery in B1 patients with previous CD-related abdominal surgery and colonic involvement
		n of subjects	CP of event (%)1	pLogRank	HR (95%CI)2	P value2	HR (95%CI)3	P value3	n of subjects	CP of event (%)1	pLogRank	HR (95%CI)2	P value2	HR (95%CI)3	P value3
Overall population		73	28.2						58	26.6
Clinical factors
Age at onset	A1	11	60.2	0.186	4.47 (0.52-38.57)	0.173			11	60.2	0.122	3.16 (0.36-27.59)	0.298
	A2	54	23.8		1.94 (0.25-15.25)	0.530			42	17.9		0.97 (0.12-8.13)	0.976
	A3	8	12.5			0.214			5	20.0			0.150
Gender	Male	32	29.5		1.03 (0.38-2.77)	0.956			26	19.8	0.368	0.58 (0.17-1.93)	0.374
	Female	41	28.4	0.956					32	33.2
Location	L1 + L3	45	31.0	0.339	1.67 (0.58-4.82)	0.345			30	29.5	0.454	1.55 (0.49-4.92)	0.457
	L2	28	23.2						28	23.2
	L2 + L3	58	26.6	0.430	0.64 (0.20-1.98)	0.434
	L1	15	35.8
Familial IBD	No	68	25.5						55	23.8
	Yes	5	60.0	0.010	4.59 (1.29-16.36)	0.019			3	66.7	0.002	8.19 (1.64-40.86)	0.010
Frequent relapse	No	51	14.9						40	9.0
	Yes	19	61.0	0.006	3.79 (1.36-10.55)	0.011			15	73.3	0.000	7.94 (2.03-31.00)	0.003
Antibodies against CHI3L1
aCHI3L1 IgG	Negative	64	27.3						51	23.7
	Positive	4	40.0	0.595	1.50 (0.34-6.69)	0.597			6	40.0	0.485	1.72 (0.37-8.04)	0.490
aCHI3L1 IgA	Negative	46	21.5						34	16.3
	Positive	24	42.1	0.238	1.83 (0.66-5.04)	0.245			23	39.3	0.220	2.07 (0.63-6.80)	0.230
aCHI3L1 sIgA	Negative	40	17.2						31	13.9
	Positive	30	46.2	0.052	2.68 (0.95-7.58)	0.062			26	41.0	0.086	2.82 (0.82-9.68)	0.100

¹Cumulative probability of event (%) corresponds to the median follow-up values.

²Univariate analysis.

³Multivariate analysis.

Rows corresponding to perianal disease according to the Montreal classification at diagnosis, smoking habits were omitted because statistically significant differences for a given parameter were not obtained. HR: Hazard ratio; Age at onset: A1: ≤ 16 years, A2: 17-40 years, A3: > 40 years; Location: L1: Ileal, L2: Colonic, L3: Ileocolonic, L1 + L3: Ileal involvement, L2 + L3: Colonic involvement; Behavior: B1: Inflammatory/non-stricturing and non-penetrating; B2: Stenosing; B3: Internal penetrating; P0: Lack of perianal disease/involvement; P1: Perianal disease/involvement. IBD: Inflammatory bowel diseases; Ig: Immunoglobulin; sIgA: Secretory IgA; aCHI3L1: Anti-chitinase 3-like 1 autoantibodies; CP: Cumulative probability; CI: Confidence interval; HR: Hazard ratio.