Location-based prediction model for Crohn’s disease regarding a novel serological marker, anti-chitinase 3-like 1 autoantibodies

Table 5 Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses evaluating the association between clinical and serologic variables and the study end-point events (complicated disease course) in Crohn’s disease patients. Subgroup analysis of B1 patients with colonic involvement is shown in the second half of the table

		Development of internal penetrating and/or stenotic complication in B1 patients at diagnosis							Development of internal penetrating and/or stenotic complication in B1 patients at diagnosis with colonic involvement
		n of subjects	CP of event (%)1	pLogRank	HR (95%CI)2	P value2	HR (95%CI)3	P value3	n of subjects	CP of event (%)1	pLogRank	HR (95%CI)2	P value2	HR (95%CI)3	P value3
Overall population		209	47.5						160	44.4
Clinical factors
Age at onset	A1	27	47.7	0.137	1.95 (0.74-5.14)	0.175			26	47.7	0.095	4.12 (0.93-18.28)	0.062	7.26 (0.94-55.89)	0.057
	A2	157	51.0		2.26 (0.98-5.21)	0.055			118	46.7		4.20 (1.02-17.23)	0.046	7.79 (1.07-56.52)	0.042
	A3	25	25.9			0.152			16	19.8			0.137		0.127
Gender	Male	91	47.7	0.494	1.15 (0.77-1.74)	0.495			69	44.8	0.489	1.18 (0.74-1.90)	0.490	1.10 (0.68-1.79)	0.697
	Female	118	47.3						91	43.9
Location	L1 + L3	129	57.3	0.002	1.98 (1.27-3.08)	0.003			80	55.5	0.013	1.82 (1.13-2.95)	0.014	1.83 (1.12-2.99)	0.016
	L2	80	34.5						80	34.5
	L2 + L3	160	44.4	0.027	0.59 (0.37-0.95)	0.029
	L1	49	62.9
Frequent relapse	No	154	44.8						115	41.7
	Yes	45	53.3	0.489	1.18 (0.74-1.89)	0.490			38	52.7	0.533	1.19 (0.69-2.04)	0.534
Antibodies against CHI3L1
aCHI3L1 IgG	Negative	182	49.7						141	45.5
	Positive	17	33.9	0.219	0.57 (0.23-1.41)	0.226			14	38.6	0.561	0.76 (0.31-1.90)	0.562
aCHI3L1 IgA	Negative	145	44.1						103	37.4
	Positive	54	58.3	0.076	1.49 (0.96-2.31)	0.078			52	58.8	0.028	1.71 (1.05-2.78)	0.030	1.67 (1.02-2.71)	0.041
aCHI3L1 sIgA	Negative	127	43.7						92	36.6
	Positive	72	55.7	0.057	1.50 (0.99-2.29)	0.059			63	56.6	0.028	1.70 (1.05-2.75)	0.031	1.59 (0.98-2.58)	0.061

¹Cumulative probability of event (%) corresponds to the median follow-up values.

²Univariate analysis.

³Multivariate analysis.

Rows corresponding to perianal disease according to the Montreal classification at diagnosis, smoking habits, and familial inflammatory bowel diseases were omitted because statistically significant differences for a given parameter were not obtained. HR: Hazard ratio; Age at onset: A1: ≤ 16 years, A2: 17-40 years, A3: > 40 years; Location: L1: Ileal, L2: Colonic, L3: Ileocolonic, L1 + L3: Ileal involvement, L2 + L3: Colonic involvement; Behavior: B1: Inflammatory/non-stricturing and non-penetrating; B2: Stenosing; B3: Internal penetrating; P0: Lack of perianal disease/involvement; P1: Perianal disease/involvement. IBD: Inflammatory bowel diseases; Ig: Immunoglobulin; sIgA: Secretory IgA; aCHI3L1: Anti-chitinase 3-like 1 autoantibodies; CP: Cumulative probability; CI: Confidence interval; HR: Hazard ratio.