Time series analysis-based seasonal autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average to estimate hepatitis B and C epidemics in China

doi:10.3748/wjg.v29.i42.5716

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Nov 14, 2023 (publication date) through Jun 29, 2024

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World Journal of Gastroenterology

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1007-9327

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Baishideng Publishing Group Inc, 7041 Koll Center Parkway, Suite 160, Pleasanton, CA 94566, USA

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World J Gastroenterol. Nov 14, 2023; 29(42): 5716-5727
Published online Nov 14, 2023. doi: 10.3748/wjg.v29.i42.5716

Table 2 Projection into 2030 for hepatitis B and C incidence cases

Time (yr)	Hepatitis B		Hepatitis C
Time (yr)	Forecasts	95%CI	Forecasts	95%CI
2023	1240031	1041413-1438650	210742	141933-279552
2024	1262930	994670-1531191	209337	149760-268915
2025	1245681	953797-1537566	213123	138049-288198
2026	1234951	929339-1540563	209276	117296-301256
2027	1227438	912670-1542207	208070	101135-315004
2028	1221949	900585-1543314	205350	84304-326395
2029	1217813	891418-1544208	203073	69221-336926
2030	1214607	884203-1545011	200514	54983-346044
Mean	1233175	938512-1527839	207436	107085-307786
Total	9865400	7508093-12222709	1659485	856681-2462290

95%CI: 95%confidence interval.

Citation: Wang YB, Qing SY, Liang ZY, Ma C, Bai YC, Xu CJ. Time series analysis-based seasonal autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average to estimate hepatitis B and C epidemics in China. World J Gastroenterol 2023; 29(42): 5716-5727
URL: https://www.wjgnet.com/1007-9327/full/v29/i42/5716.htm
DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.3748/wjg.v29.i42.5716