Machine learning-based decision tool for selecting patients with idiopathic acute pancreatitis for endosonography to exclude a biliary aetiology

doi:10.3748/wjg.v29.i35.5138

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World Journal of Gastroenterology

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World J Gastroenterol. Sep 21, 2023; 29(35): 5138-5153
Published online Sep 21, 2023. doi: 10.3748/wjg.v29.i35.5138

Table 3 Variable distribution in the validation cohort (UMG + Technical University Munich)

Variable	Microlithiasis (n = 36)	Other (n = 81)	Total (n = 117)	P value
Age (yr)				0.162
mean ± SD	60.1 ± 18.4	55.3 ± 16.8	56.8 ± 17.4
Range	23-93	21-87	21-93
Sex				0.315
Female	12/36 (33.3%)	35/81 (43.2%)	47/117 (40.2%)
Male	24/36 (66.7%)	46/81 (56.8%)	70/117 (59.8%)
Alkaline phosphatase				0.032
N-Miss	1/36 (2.7%)	12/81 (14.8%)	13/117 (11.1%)
ULN	23/36 (63.8%)	30/81 (37%)	53/117 (45.2%)
WL	12/36 (33.2%)	39/81 (48.1%)	51/117 (43.5%)
Total bilirubin				0.003
ULN	21/36 (58.3%)	24/81 (29.6%)	45/117 (38.5%)
WL	15/36 (41.7%)	57/81 (70.4%)	72/117 (61.5%)
Creatine kinase				0.498
N-Miss	8/36 (22.2%)	32/81 (39.5%)	40/117 (34.1%)
ULN	5/36 (13.8%)	6/81 (7.4%)	11/117 (9.4%)
WL	23/36 (63.8%)	43/81 (53%)	66/117 (56.4%)
CRP				0.199
ULN	32/36 (88.9%)	64/81 (79%)	96/117 (88.8%)
WL	4/36 (11.1%)	17/81 (21%)	21/117 (17.9%)
Total protein				0.405
N-Miss	31/36 (86.1%)	73/81 (90.1%)	104/117 (88.8%)
WL	5/36 (13.8%)	8/81 (9.8%)	13/117 (11.1%)
Erythrocytes				0.650
N-Miss	0/36 (0%)	1/81 (1.2%)	1/117 (0.8%)
LLN	10/36 (27.7%)	25/81 (30.8%)	35/117 (29.9%)
ULN	4/36 (11.1%)	5/81 (6.1%)	9/117 (7.6%)
WL	22/36 (61.1%)	50/81 (61.7%)	72/117 (61.5%)
Gamma-GT				0.082
N-Miss	0/36 (0%)	2/81 (2.4%)	2/117 (1.7%)
ULN	32/36 (88.8%)	59/81 (72.8%)	91/117 (77.7%)
WL	4/36 (11.1%)	20/81 (24.6%)	24/117 (20.5%)
AST/GOT				0.079
N-Miss	0/36 (0%)	4/81 (4.9%)	4/117 (3.4%)
ULN	28/36 (77.8%)	47/81 (58%)	75/117 (64.1%)
WL	8/36 (22.2%)	30/81 (37%)	38/117 (32.4%)
ALT/GPT				0.052
N-Miss	0/36 (0%)	2/81 (2.4%)	2/117 (1.7%)
ULN	28/36 (77.8%)	43/81 (53%)	71/117 (60.6%)
WL	8/36 (22.2%)	30/81 (37%)	38/117 (32.4%)
Urea
N-Miss	7/36 (19.4%)	20/81 (24.6%)	27/117 (23%)
LLN	13/36 (36.1%)	41/81 (50.6%)	54/117 (46.1%)
ULN	0/36 (0%)	1/81 (1.2%)	1/117 (0.8%)
WL	16/36 (44.4%)	19/81 (23.4%)	35/117 (29.9%)
Hematocrit				< 0.001
N-Miss	0/36 (0%)	1/81 (1.2%)	1/117 (0.8%)
ULN	36/36 (100%)	80/81 (98.7%)	116/117 (99.1%)
Haemoglobin				0.725
N-Miss	0/36 (0%)	1/81 (1.2%)	1/117 (0.8%)
LLN	9/36 (25%)	18/81 (22.2%)	27/117 (23%)
ULN	3/36 (8.3%)	4/81 (4.9%)	7/117 (5.9%)
WL	32/36 (88.9%)	64/81 (79.0%)	96/117 (82%)
INR				0.440
ULN	2/36 (5.5%)	8/81 (9.8%)	10/117 (8.5%)
WL	34/36 (94.4%)	73/81 (90.1%)	107/117 (91.4%)
Potassium				0.985
LLN	2/36 (5.5%)	4/81 (4.9%)	6/117 (5.1%)
ULN	1/36 (2.7%)	2/81 (2.4%)	3/117 (2.5%)
WL	33/36 (91.6%)	75/81 (92.5%)	108/117 (92.3%)
Serum creatinine				0.909
LLN	2/36 (5.5%)	6/81 (7.4%)	8/117 (6.8%)
ULN	7/36 (19.4%)	14/81 (17.2%)	21/117 (17.9%)
WL	27/36 (75%)	61/81 (75.3%)	88/117 (75.2%)
LDH				0.018
N-Miss	6/36 (16.6%)	28/81 (34.5%)	34/117 (29%)
ULN	26/36 (72.2%)	33/81 (40.7%)	59/117 (50.4%)
WL	4/36 (11.1%)	20/81 (24.6%)	24/117 (20.5%)
Leukocytes				0.143
N-Miss	0/36 (0%)	1/81 (1.2%)	1/117 (0.8%)
LLN	1/36 (2.7%)	0/81 (0%)	1/117 (0.8%)
ULN	16/36 (44.4%)	47/81 (58%)	63/117 (53.8%)
WL	19/36 (52.7%)	33/81 (40.7%)	52/117 (44.4%)
Lipase				0.237
N-Miss	0/36 (0%)	2/81 (2.4%)	2/117 (1.7%)
ULN	32/36 (88.9%)	75/81 (92.5%)	107/117 (91.4%)
WL	4/36 (11.1%)	4/81 (4.9%)	8/117 (6.8%)
MCV				0.315
N-Miss	0/36 (0%)	1/81 (1.2%)	1/117 (0.8%)
LLN	3/36 (8.3%)	7/81 (8.6%)	10/117 (8.5%)
ULN	1/36 (2.7%)	9/81 (11.1%)	10/117 (8.5%)
WL	32/36 (88.9%)	64/81 (79%)	96/117 (82%)
Triglycerides				0.582
N-Miss	26/36 (72.2%)	43/81 (53%)	69/117 (58.9%)
ULN	3/36 (8.3%)	15/81 (18.5%)	18/117 (15.3%)
WL	7/36 (19.4%)	23/81 (28.3%)	30/117 (25.6%)
RDW
N-Miss	36/36 (100%)	81/81 (100%)	117/117 (100%)
False	0/36 (0%)	0/81 (0%)	0/117 (0%)
True	0/36 (0%)	0/81 (0%)	0/117 (0%)
Sodium				0.154
LLN	2/36 (5.5%)	12/81 (14.8%)	14/117 (11.9%)
WL	34/36 (94.4%)	69/81 (85.1%)	103/117 (88%)
Quick’s value				0.130
LLN	2/36 (5.5%)	6/81 (7.4%)	8/117 (6.8%)
ULN	13/36 (36.1%)	44/81 (54.3%)	57/117 (48.7%)
WL	21/36 (58.3%)	31/81 (38.2%)	52/117 (44.4%)
Thrombocytes				0.627
N-Miss	22/36 (61.1%)	51/81 (62.9%)	73/117 (62.3%)
LLN	2/36 (5.5%)	3/81 (3.7%)	5/117 (4.2%)
ULN	2/36 (5.5%)	2/81 (2.4%)	4/117 (3.4%)
WL	10/36 (27.7%)	25/81 (30.8%)	35/117 (29.9%)
TSH				0.773
N-Miss	6/36 (16.6%)	13/81 (16%)	19/117 (16.2%)
LLN	0/36 (0%)	1/81 (1.2%)	1/117 (0.8%)
ULN	1/36 (2.7%)	3/81 (3.7%)	4/117 (3.4%)
WL	29/36 (80.5%)	64/81 (79%)	93/117 (79.4%)

All variables that were used for the final predictive model are listed. For laboratory or urine values, the first available value during the inpatient stay was used. For the investigated groups of microlithiasis-induced acute pancreatitis (n = 36) vs the group of pancreatitis induced by other aetiologies (n = 81), the variables were categorised as whether collected or not (N-Miss), in the case of laboratory values whether below the lower limit value, within the limit values, or above the upper limit value. For the P value calculation using χ² test, variables with missing data shares of > 25% were not excluded. LLN: Lower limit value; WL: Within the limit value; ULN: Upper limit value; CRP: C-reactive protein; Gamma-GT: Gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase; AST: Aspartate aminotransferase; GOT: Glutamic oxalacetic transaminases; ALT: Alanine transaminase; GPT: Glutamic pyruvic transaminase; INR: International normalized ratio; LDH: Lactate dehydrogenase; MCH: Mean corpuscular hemoglobin; MCHC: Mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration; RDW: Red blood cell distribution width; MCV: Mean corpuscular volume; TSH: Thyrotropin.

Citation: Sirtl S, Żorniak M, Hohmann E, Beyer G, Dibos M, Wandel A, Phillip V, Ammer-Herrmenau C, Neesse A, Schulz C, Schirra J, Mayerle J, Mahajan UM. Machine learning-based decision tool for selecting patients with idiopathic acute pancreatitis for endosonography to exclude a biliary aetiology. World J Gastroenterol 2023; 29(35): 5138-5153
URL: https://www.wjgnet.com/1007-9327/full/v29/i35/5138.htm
DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.3748/wjg.v29.i35.5138