Regional variation in routes to diagnosis of cholangiocarcinoma in England from 2006 to 2017

Table 3 Estimated proportions diagnosed via Two Week Wait referral (as opposed to any other route): Results from linear probability models

	Model 1: Unadjusted		Model 2: Demographic-adjusted1		Model 3: Adjusted2
	Estimate	95%CI	Estimate	95%CI	Estimate	95%CI
Population average (intercept)	13.77	13.33-14.20	13.77	13.33-14.20	13.77	13.33-14.20
Cheshire and Merseyside	-4.16	-5.79--2.53	-4.08	-5.72--2.45	-3.66	-5.28--2.04
East Midlands	1.25	-0.18-2.68	1.07	-0.35-2.50	1.02	-0.38-2.43
East of England -North	1.87	-0.04-3.79	1.83	-0.09-3.75	1.71	-0.20-3.62
East of England -South	-2.67	-4.31--1.03	-2.85	-4.49--1.21	-3.01	-4.64--1.38
Greater Manchester	-2.11	-3.83--0.39	-1.92	-3.65--0.19	-1.78	-3.50--0.06
Humber, Coast and Vale	2.13	-0.26-4.52	1.93	-0.46-4.33	2.06	-0.31-4.43
Kent and Medway	-1.72	-4.17-0.73	-1.55	-3.98-0.89	-1.80	-4.24-0.64
Lancashire and South Cumbria	1.36	-1.00-3.72	1.37	-0.99-3.72	1.49	-0.84-3.82
North Central London	-4.70	-7.48--1.91	-4.57	-7.36--1.78	-4.48	-7.27--1.68
North East London	-1.92	-4.74-0.90	-1.32	-4.14-1.51	-1.04	-3.84-1.76
North West and South West London	-5.38	-6.99--3.77	-5.15	-6.76--3.53	-4.91	-6.51--3.30
Northern	3.62	1.97-5.27	3.6	1.94-5.25	3.66	2.02-5.30
Peninsula	-0.40	-2.52-1.73	-0.39	-2.52-1.74	-0.64	-2.76-1.49
Somerset, Wiltshire, Avon and Gloucestershire	1.18	-0.79-3.15	1.03	-0.94-2.99	1.18	-0.76-3.13
South East London	-0.49	-3.44-2.47	-0.02	-2.97-2.93	0.27	-2.67-3.20
South Yorkshire and Bassetlaw	1.50	-1.21-4.22	1.82	-0.89-4.54	1.93	-0.76-4.63
Surrey and Sussex	-0.99	-2.72-0.74	-1.20	-2.94-0.54	-1.41	-3.15-0.34
Thames Valley	0.81	-2.00-3.63	0.45	-2.37-3.27	0.30	-2.48-3.09
Wessex	5.17	3.05-7.30	4.89	2.76-7.02	4.73	2.63-6.83
West Midlands	-1.37	-2.58--0.16	-1.30	-2.51--0.09	-1.55	-2.76--0.35
West Yorkshire and Harrogate	2.68	0.50-4.86	2.91	0.73-5.08	3.12	0.96-5.28
Age 0-44	-8.44	-10.44--6.43	-7.76	-9.77--5.75	-8.76	-10.78--6.74
Age 45-54	-1.13	-2.90-0.65	-0.84	-2.62-0.93	-1.37	-3.14-0.40
Age 55-64	1.12	0.03-2.21	1.25	0.16-2.33	1.03	-0.06-2.13
Age 65-74	2.32	1.57-3.08	2.29	1.53-3.05	2.16	1.41-2.91
Age 75-84	0.42	-0.22-1.06	0.33	-0.31-0.97	0.56	-0.08-1.20
Age 85+	-3.62	-4.44--2.80	-3.67	-4.50--2.84	-3.46	-4.30--2.61
Female	-0.17	-0.60-0.26	0.04	-0.39-0.46	-0.27	-0.70-0.16
Male	0.18	-0.27-0.63	-0.04	-0.49-0.42	0.29	-0.17-0.74
Quintile 1 (least deprived)	0.91	-0.02-1.83	0.74	-0.20-1.67	0.42	-0.51-1.35
Quintile 2	0.59	-0.27-1.46	0.49	-0.38-1.35	0.28	-0.57-1.14
Quintile 3	0.29	-0.58-1.17	0.32	-0.56-1.20	0.33	-0.55-1.20
Quintile 4	-0.44	-1.31-0.43	-0.31	-1.18-0.56	-0.20	-1.06-0.67
Quintile 5 (most deprived)	-1.38	-2.24--0.52	-1.26	-2.15--0.37	-0.86	-1.74-0.03
2006	-3.86	-5.30--2.42			-4.4	-5.84--2.97
2007	-3.64	-5.11--2.16			-4.17	-5.64--2.69
2008	-3.31	-4.72--1.91			-3.90	-5.29--2.51
2009	-2.84	-4.21--1.47			-3.07	-4.44--1.69
2010	-1.93	-3.31--0.55			-2.15	-3.53--0.77
2011	-1.98	-3.35--0.61			-2.12	-3.49--0.75
2012	0.66	-0.82-2.13			0.73	-0.72-2.18
2013	1.07	-0.37-2.51			1.13	-0.30-2.56
2014	0.22	-1.21-1.65			0.54	-0.88-1.96
2015	2.52	1.07-3.97			3.00	1.57-4.44
2016	2.99	1.54-4.44			3.39	1.95-4.82
2017	6.04	4.52-7.55			6.42	4.92-7.93
Adenomas and adenocarcinomas	0.20	0.08-0.32			0.04	-0.08-0.16
Other morphology	-2.44	-3.86--1.02			-0.49	-1.99-1.02
eCCA	-0.38	-1.29-0.53			-0.52	-1.45-0.40
iCCA	0.12	-0.13-0.37			0.07	-0.19-0.33
Other subtype	-0.30	-1.97-1.38			0.72	-0.97-2.42
Charlson 0	1.64	1.40-1.87			1.68	1.44-1.92
Charlson 1	-2.93	-4.00--1.85			-2.88	-3.95--1.81
Charlson 2	-4.87	-6.23--3.51			-5.03	-6.40--3.67
Charlson 3 +	-7.60	-8.78--6.42			-7.98	-9.19--6.77
Liver disease -No	0.32	0.22-0.43			0.34	0.23-0.44
Liver disease -Yes	-4.28	-5.65--2.90			-4.44	-5.86--3.02

¹Adjustment for: Age, gender, income deprivation quintile.

²Adjustment for: Age, gender, income deprivation quintile, Charlson comorbidity index, underlying liver disease at diagnosis, diagnosis year, tumour morphology, tumour sub-type.

Apart from intercept, estimates represent the percentage-point difference from the weighted cohort average probability of each route. If 95%CI does not contain zero, the percentage-point difference from average will be more than 2 SD and indicates variation that is unlikely to be due to chance. Bold indicates a difference that is > 2 SD above or below average. iCCA: Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma; eCCA: Extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma.