Retrospective Study
Copyright ©The Author(s) 2021.
World J Gastroenterol. Dec 28, 2021; 27(48): 8357-8369
Published online Dec 28, 2021. doi: 10.3748/wjg.v27.i48.8357
Table 3 Survival outcomes of first-line doublet regimens in the training and validation sets according to the new prognostic model
Risk group
Good risk, 0-1 point(s)
Moderate risk, 2-3 points
Poor risk, ≥ 4 points
P value
Training set (2012-2015)
No. of patients449 (48.8%)319 (34.7%)152 (16.5%)
Hazard ratio (95%CI)Reference1.628 (1.40-1.90)4.013 (3.30-4.88)< 0.001
Median OS, mo (95%CI)15.9 (14.5-17.4)10.6 (9.3-11.9)4.7 (4.0-5.5)< 0.001
Median PFS, mo (95%CI)8.3 (7.4-9.1)5.9 (5.1-6.6)2.4 (1.8-2.9)< 0.001
Survival rate (%)
At 6 mo90.0% (87.2-92.8)74.0% (69.2-78.8)37.5% (29.8-45.2)
At 12 mo63.2% (58.7-67.7)44.0% (38.6-49.4)16.1% (10.3-21.9)
At 18 mo42.9% (38.3-47.5)23.4% (18.8-28.0)6.3% (2.4-10.2)
At 24 mo31.2% (26.9-35.5)16.4% (12.3-20.5)2.8% (0.2-5.4)
Validation set (2008-2011)
No. of patients474 (52.0%)291 (31.9%)147 (16.1%)
Hazard ratio (95%CI)Reference1.634 (1.41-1.90)2.963 (2.45-3.59)< 0.001
Median OS, mo (95%CI)15.8 (14.8-16.9)10.1 (8.7-11.5)5.7 (4.7-6.6)< 0.001
Median PFS, mo (95%CI)7.0 (6.3-7.7)5.6 (5.1-6.1)3.2 (2.5-3.9)< 0.001
Survival rate (%)
At 6 mo88.6% (85.7-91.5)72.2% (67.1-77.3)47.6% (39.6-55.7)
At 12 mo64.3% (60.0-68.6)42.3% (36.6-48.0)17.0% (10.9-23.1)
At 18 mo40.1% (35.7-44.5)22.0% (17.2-26.8)6.1% (2.2-10.0)
At 24 mo25.9% (22.0-29.8)13.1% (9.2-17.0)4.8% (1.3-8.3)
Validation set (2008-2011) according to old model
No. of patients393 (41.7%)390 (41.4%)160 (16.9%)
Hazard ratio (95%CI)Reference1.493 (1.29-1.73)3.281 (2.71-3.98)< 0.001
Median OS, mo (95%CI)16.2 (15.3-17.1)10.7 (9.5-12.0)5.5 (4.5-6.5)< 0.001
Median PFS, mo (95%CI)7.1 (6.3-7.9)5.6 (5.1-6.2)3.3 (2.5-4.0)< 0.001
Survival rate (%)
At 6 mo90.3% (87.4-93.2)75.8% (71.5-80.1)47.5% (39.8-55.2)
At 12 mo68.2% (63.6-72.8)45.5% (40.6-50.4)16.3% (10.6-22.0)
At 18 mo41.3% (36.4-46.2)26.5% (22.1-30.9)5.6% (2.0-9.2)
At 24 mo27.4% (23.0-31.8)17.0% (13.3-20.7)3.1% (0.4-5.8)