Pancreatic necrosis and severity are independent risk factors for pancreatic endocrine insufficiency after acute pancreatitis: A long-term follow-up study

Table 3 Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses of prognostic factors for pancreatic endocrine insufficiency after acute pancreatitis onset

Variable	Univariate analysis		Multivariate analysis
	HR (95%CI)	P value	HR (95%CI)	P value
Age	0.987 (0.966-1.008)	0.784
Sex
Male	Reference
Female	0.856 (0.618-1.184)	0.348
BMI	1.026 (0.993-1.060)	0.125
APACHE II	1.023 (0.980-1.068)	0.296
Etiology
Biliary	Reference
HTG	1.417 (0.995-2.017)	0.053
Alcoholic	0.928 (0.565-1.527)	0.770
Others	1.578 (0.626-3.975)	0.333
Severity of AP
Mild	Reference		Reference
Moderate	4.400 (1.920-10.088)	0.001	3.489 (1.501-8.111)	0.004
Severe	3.929 (1.695-9.103)	0.001	2.529 (1.046-6.115)	0.039
Organ failure
No	Reference		Reference
Yes	1.163 (1.182-2.259)	0.003	1.004 (0.695-1.452)	0.982
Pancreatic necrosis
No	Reference		Reference
Yes	3.287 (2.215-4.879)	0.001	4.152 (2.580-6.684)	0.001
Part of pancreatic necrosis
Head of pancreas	Reference		Reference
Body of pancreas	4.905 (2.864-8.400)	0.001	0.775 (0.388-1.550)	0.470
Tail of pancreas	2.435 (1.561-3.801)	0.001	6.433 (0.396-1.722)	0.609
Whole pancreas	4.448 (2.486-7.959)	0.001	0.675 (0.369-1.232)	0.200
Area of pancreatic necrosis
30%	Reference		Reference
30%–50%	3.988 (2.557-6.220)	0.001	6.433 (2.919-14.180)	0.001
> 50%	4,144 (2.661-6.456)	0.001	8.093 (3.867-16.936)	0.001
Debridement of necrosis (minimally invasive and/or ON)
No	Reference		Reference
Yes	1.451 (1.045-2.014)	0.026	0.683 (0.463-1.007)	0.054
History of smoking
No	Reference
Yes	1.276 (0.872-1.868)	0.209
History of drinking
No	Reference
Yes	1.276 (0.872-1.868)	0.209

BMI: Body mass index; APACHE II: Acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II; AP: Acute pancreatitis; HTG: Hypertriglyceridemia; ON: Operative necrosectomy.