Risk factors and prediction score for chronic pancreatitis: A nationwide population-based cohort study

Table 2 Adjusted hazard ratio and 95% confidence interval for chronic pancreatitis associated with recurrent acute pancreatitis, smoking, comorbidities, and medication use

	Adjusted HRfull model (95%CI)	P value	Adjusted HRbackward model (95%CI)	P value	Adjusted HRbackward+episode (95%CI)	P value
Smoking related codes	1.57 (1.07, 2.32)	0.022	1.53 (1.04, 2.25)	0.029	1.48 (1.01, 2.17)	0.047
RAP	8.96 (5.37, 14.93)	< 0.001	8.65 (5.2, 14.38)	< 0.001
1 episode					1
2 episode					5.03 (2.75, 9.22)	< 0.001
3 episode					8.47 (4.36, 16.45)	< 0.001
> 3 episode					15.64 (8.91, 27.47)	< 0.001
Geographic location
Northern Taiwan	1
Central Taiwan	0.53 (0.28, 0.99)	0.047
Southern Taiwan	1.45 (0.94, 2.23)	0.090
Eastern Taiwan and Islands	1.2 (0.57, 2.53)	0.626
Age category
Age < 55	2.67 (1.35, 5.29)	0.005	2.43 (1.31, 4.49)	0.005	2.04 (1.06, 3.93)	0.033
Age ≥ 55	1		1		1
Gender, male	1.31 (0.72, 2.41)	0.381
Income	1.1 (0.86, 1.41)	0.440
CCI	0.96 (0.84, 1.1)	0.576
Hypertension	1.14 (0.7, 1.84)	0.601
Hyperlipidemia	0.82 (0.5, 1.35)	0.435
Diabetes mellitus	0.73 (0.39, 1.35)	0.314
Chronic kidney disease	1.64 (0.79, 3.39)	0.181
Alcohol use-related codes	3.06 (1.83, 5.12)	< 0.001	3.10 (1.96, 4.92)	< 0.001	2.66 (1.66, 4.25)	< 0.001
Statin	0.97 (0.43, 2.16)	0.937
Angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor	1.05 (0.42, 2.63)	0.922
Prednisolone	1.28 (0.28, 5.85)	0.751
Sex hormone	1.64 (0.52, 5.2)	0.398
Metformin	2.09 (0.83, 5.29)	0.120

RAP: Recurrent acute pancreatitis; HR: Hazard ratio; CI: Confidence interval; CCI: Charlson’s comorbidity index.