Timing of upper gastrointestinal endoscopy does not influence short-term outcomes in patients with acute variceal bleeding

Table 3 Cox proportional hazards model for 6-wk mortality

Variable	Univariable		Multivariable
	HR (95%CI)	P value	HR (95%CI)	P value
Age	1.037 (1.016-1.059)	< 0.001	1.035 (1.011-1.059)	0.004
Sex
Female	1
Male	0.946 (0.543-1.664)	0.845
Etiology
Non-viral	1		1
Viral	0.536 (0.319-0.902)	0.019	0.683 (0.384-1.214)	0.194
Hepatocellular carcinoma	2.442 (1.439-4.142)	0.001	1.929 (1.072-3.469)	0.028
Diabetes Mellitus	0.535 (0.292-0.978)	0.042	0.423 (0.225-0.795)	0.008
Hypertension	0.994 (0.521-1.894)	0.984
Prior variceal upper GI bleeding	0.916 (0.561-1.497)	0.726
Prior non-variceal upper GI bleeding	3.92E-8 (0-INF)	0.996
Systolic blood pressure	1.003 (0.994-1.012)	0.489
Heart rate	1.005 (0.992-1.018)	0.477
MELD score1	1.062 (1.041-1.083)	< 0.001	1.049(1.024-1.074)	< 0.001
ALT	1.001 (0.999-1.002)	0.123
Serum creatinine1	1.075 (1.013-1.197)	0.018
Serum total bilirubin1	1.047 (1.012-1.083)	0.007
Prothrombin time1	1.128 (1.043-1.221)	0.003
Initial hepatic encephalopathy
None	1		1
Grade I-II	1.393 (0.558-3.477)	0.477	0.555 (0.200-1.537)	0.257
Grade III-IV	2.229 (1.062-4.677)	0.034	0.969 (0.449-2.088)	0.935
Initial ascites
None	1		1
Mild	2.064 (1.003-4.250)	0.049	1.604 (0.766-3.361)	0.210
Moderate to severe	4.675 (2.494-8.766)	< 0.001	3.346 (1.715-6.527)	< 0.001
Glasgow-Blatchford score	0.980 (0.917-1.047)	0.550
Rockall score	1.138 (0.968-1.338)	0.118
Timing of endoscopy
Non-urgent (≥ 12 h)	1
Urgent (< 12 h)	1.297 (0.806-2.088)	0.284

¹Considering the multicollinearity between model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score and its individual components, only MELD score, the most relevant prognostic parameter in cirrhosis, was included in the final multivariable model. HR: Hazard ratio; GI: Gastrointestinal; MELD: Model for end-stage liver disease; ALT: Alanine aminotransferase.