Model combining pre-transplant tumor biomarkers and tumor size shows more utility in predicting hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence and survival than the BALAD models

Table 5 Univariate models for recurrence and death outcome

Variable	Hazard ratio for recurrence		Hazard ratio for death
	HR (95%CI)	P value	HR (95%CI)	P value
MELD score (per point)	1.03 (0.98-1.09)	0.26	1.05 (1.003-1.09)	0.04a
Diameter of the largest tumor at time of transplant (per cm)	1.27 (1.04-1.56)	0.02a	1.21 (1.03-1.41)	0.02
Tumor number at time of transplant	1.001 (0.73-1.37)	1.00	0.93 (0.72-1.20)	0.57
Neutrophil lymphocyte ratio > 4	2.24 (1.17-4.26)	0.02a	1.66 (1.004-2.73)	0.048a
Hypothyroidism	1.26 (0.55-2.85)	0.59	1.54 (0.82-2.90)	0.18
BALAD components
Albumin (per g/dL)	0.75 (0.41-1.38)	0.36	0.69 (0.43-1.13)	0.14
Bilirubin (per mg/dL)	1.03 (0.98-1.09)	0.21	1.04 (0.995-1.08)	0.08
AFP: > 400 ng/mL	2.42 (1.18-5.00)	0.02a	3.27 (1.84-5.80)	< 0.001b
AFP-L3 > 15%	1.86 (0.98-3.52)	0.056	1.88 (1.14-3.09)	0.01a
DCP > 1.2 ng/mL	2.83 (1.42-5.61)	0.003b	2.40 (1.43-4.04)	< 0001b
BALAD Score
0	Reference		Reference
1	0.70 (0.20-2.47)	0.58	1.14 (0.40-3.23)	0.81
2	1.18 (0.37-3.75)	0.78	2.01 (0.75-5.38)	0.17
3	1.99 (0.62-6.36)	0.24	2.73 (0.99-7.51)	0.052
4	2.97 (0.84-10.58)	0.09	4.68 (1.52-14.36)	0.007b
5	5.02 (0.92-27.54)	0.06	17.40 (3.81-79.47)	< 0.001b
BALAD Score (per increase of 1)	1.48 (1.15-1.91)	0.002b	1.59 (1.28-1.97)	< 0.001b
BALAD-2 Score
1	Reference		Reference
2	0.41 (0.12-1.32)	0.13	1.07 (0.50-2.28)	0.86
3	1.53 (0.66-3.54)	0.32	1.76 (0.87-3.54)	0.11
4	2.17 (0.90-5.25)	0.09	2.45 (1.16-5.17)	0.02a
BALAD-2 Score (per increase of 1)	1.45 (1.06-1.98)	0.02a	1.38 (1.09-1.76)	0.008b
Within Milan criteria at diagnosis	1.69 (0.84-3.41)	0.14	2.17 (1.25-3.78)	0.006b
Within UCSF criteria at diagnosis	1.85 (0.85-4.05)	0.12	3.19 (1.75-5.84)	< 0.001b
Within Milan criteria at transplant	1.24 (0.59-2.62)	0.57	1.06 (0.57-1.95)	0.86
Within UCSF criteria at transplant	0.33 (0.05-2.43)	0.28	0.68 (0.21-2.17)	0.51
z-GALAD	1.12 (1.03-1.21)	0.006b	1.12 (1.06-1.19)	< 0.001b
GALAD score	3.01 (1.14-7.91)	0.03a	3.22 (1.48-7.00)	0.003b
AFP model cutoff > 2 (explant)	2.82 (1.47-5.41)	0.002b	2.83 (1.67-4.82)	< 0.001b
AFP model (per increase of 1, explant)	1.42 (1.20-1.68)	< 0.001b	1.34 (1.16-1.54)	< 0.001b

^aP < 0.05,

^bP < 0.01, statistical difference. AFP: Alpha-fetoprotein; AFP-L3: Lens culinaris agglutinin-reactive alpha-fetoprotein; DCP: Des-gamma-carboxyprothrombin.