Predictors of esophageal varices and first variceal bleeding in liver cirrhosis patients

Table 6 Performance of non-invasive markers for prediction of esophageal variceal bleeding among patients with variceal prophylactic therapy (n = 83; esophageal variceal bleeding: n = 23)

Non-invasive markers	Cut-off value	Sensitivity	Specificity	AUC (95%CI)1	P value
FIB-4	5.02	57%	42%	0.42 (0.28-0.56)	0.257
Fibrosis index	3.43	57%	40%	0.41 (0.28-0.55)	0.215
King score	46.15	57%	28%	0.39 (0.26-0.52)	0.112
APRI	1.65	57%	58%	0.45 (0.32-0.57)	0.439
PL/SD	736	52%	43%	0.49 (0.34-0.63)	0.843
AST/ALT	1.79	57%	58%	0.53 (0.42-0.64)	0.628
MELD	16.5	57%	58%	0.49 (0.35-0.63)	0.879

¹AUC (area under the curve) obtained from the receiver operating characteristic. AST/ALT: Aspartate aminotransferase (AST) to alanine aminotransferase (ALT) ratio; APRI: AST to platelet ratio index; FIB-4: Fibrosis-4-index; MELD: Model for end-stage liver disease; PC/SD: Platelet count to spleen diameter; VPT: Variceal prophylactic therapy.