Trends and predictions for gastric cancer mortality in Brazil

Table 1 Deviance changes in the sequential construction of age-period and birth cohort models

Models	Brazil
	Female			Male
	Resid.DF	Res.Dev	P value	Resid.DF	Res.Dev	P value
Age	72	9069.3		72	15752.0
Age-drift	71	661.6	< 0.00001	71	515.1	< 0.00001
Age-cohort	67	390.5	< 0.00001	67	403.0	< 0.00001
Age-period-cohort	64	372.5	0.001	64	370.6	< 0.00001
Age-period	68	642.8	< 0.00001	68	485.9	< 0.00001
Age-drift	71	661.6	0.001	71	515.1	< 0.00001
Midwest
Models
Age	72	399.77		72	899.91
Age-drift	71	88.88	< 0.00001	71	116.80	< 0.00001
Age-cohort	67	72.14	0.002	67	111.94	0.302
Age-period-cohort	64	66.18	0.200	64	95.83	0.003
Age-period	68	83.03	0.002	68	100.13	0.366
Age-drift	71	88.88	0.210	71	116.80	0.002
North
Models
Age	72	325.04		72	1310.75
Age-drift	71	140.37	< 0.00001	71	779.28	< 0.00001
Age-cohort	67	129.65	0.030	67	751.44	< 0.00001
Age-period-cohort	64	110.22	0.001	64	178.57	0.003
Age-period	68	121.64	0.022	68	194.68	< 0.00001
Age-drift	71	140.37	0.001	71	779.28	< 0.00001
Northeast
Models
Age	72	566.75		72	1038.52
Age-drift	71	405.46	< 0.00001	71	656.22	< 0.00001
Age-cohort	67	269.65	< 0.00001	67	597.78	< 0.00001
Age-period-cohort	64	142.85	< 0.00001	64	155.70	< 0.00001
Age-period	68	230.83	< 0.00001	68	208.92	< 0.00001
Age-drift	71	405.46	< 0.00001	71	656.22	< 0.00001
South
Models
Age	72	1903.85		72	3090.98
Age-drift	71	219.90	< 0.00001	71	207.96	< 0.00001
Age-cohort	67	152.41	< 0.00001	67	189.07	0.001
Age-period-cohort	64	124.92	< 0.00001	64	129.74	< 0.00001
Age-period	68	200.58	< 0.00001	68	143.44	< 0.00001
Age-drift	71	219.90	0.001	71	207.96	< 0.00001
Southeast
Models
Age	72	6993.8		72	11604.0
Age-drift	71	447.6	< 0.00001	71	399.5	< 0.00001
Age-cohort	67	278.8	< 0.00001	67	290.5	< 0.00001
Age-period-cohort	64	217.6	< 0.00001	64	209.5	< 0.00001
Age-period	68	389.4	< 0.00001	68	284.7	< 0.00001
Age-drift	71	447.6	< 0.00001	71	399.5	< 0.00001