Management of acute pancreatitis in Japan: Analysis of nationwide epidemiological survey

Table 2 Univariate and multivariate analysis showing association of each prognostic factor with acute pancreatitis-related death

	OR (95%CI)	P value
Univariate analysis
BE ≤ -3 mEq/L or shock	12.1 (6.8-21.1)	< 0.0001
PaO2 ≤ 60 mmHg or respiratory failure	11.1 (5.7-20.9)	< 0.0001
BUN ≥ 40 mg/dL (or Cr ≥ 2 mg/dL or oliguria)	14.9 (8.3-26.4)	< 0.0001
Elevation of LDH (twice or more than UNL)	4.2 (2.3-7.4)	< 0.0001
Platelet count ≤ 100000/μL	4.2 (1.6-9.5)	0.007
Serum calcium ≤ 7.5 mg/dL	14.1 (7.2-26.8)	< 0.0001
CRP ≥ 15 mg/dL	3.6 (1.9-6.7)	0.0003
Meeting 3 or more SIRS criteria	8.4 (4.7-14.8)	< 0.0001
Age ≥ 70 yr	3.2 (1.8-5.5)	< 0.0001
Multivariate analysis
BE ≤ -3 mEq/L or shock	2.8 (1.3-6.1)	0.012
PaO2 ≤ 60 mmHg or respiratory failure	1.9 (0.8-4.4)	0.130
BUN ≥ 40 mg/dL (or Cr ≥ 2 mg/dL or oliguria)	3.8 (1.8-7.8)	0.0008
Elevation of LDH (twice or more than UNL)	1.5 (0.7-3.0)	0.280
Platelet count ≤ 100000/μL	1.8 (0.6-4.9)	0.300
Serum calcium ≤ 7.5 mg/dL	2.5 (0.99-6.1)	0.051
CRP ≥ 15 mg/dL	1.0 (0.4-2.2)	0.980
Meeting 3 or more SIRS criteria	2.3 (1.0-4.7)	0.038
Age ≥ 70 yr	3.5 (1.9-6.6)	< 0.0001

BE: Base excess; BUN: Blood urea nitrogen; CRP: C-reactive protein; LDH: Lactate dehydrogenase; SIRS: Systemic inflammatory response syndrome; UNL: Upper normal limit.