Brief Article
Copyright ©2012 Baishideng Publishing Group Co.
World J Gastroenterol. Nov 14, 2012; 18(42): 6106-6113
Published online Nov 14, 2012. doi: 10.3748/wjg.v18.i42.6106
Table 1 General assumptions of the Markov model of the B positive hepatocellular cancer prevention program
AssumptionHow addressed and rationale
Participant recruitmentTarget population age ≥ 35 yr, HBsAg +ve for ≥ 6 mo, born in China, Hong Kong, Vietnam
Contact testing and immunisationNot factored into the model
Seroprevalence in target populations10.7% for people born in China
10.5% for people born in Vietnam
7.7% for people born in Hong Kong (Nguyen et al[16])
Initial testing to confirm chronic hepatitis BNot factored in the GP consultation calculations
Program participation ratesBase case assumption: 25% of eligible people are enrolled
HCC screeningAll participants have AFP and liver US at enrolment
Participants receiving enhanced surveillance have 6-monthly AFP and US
Participants receiving treatment also have liver biopsy
Follow up requirementsRoutine surveillance arm: 2 GP appointments/yr
Enhanced HCC surveillance arm: 2 GP appointments/yr
Interferon treatment: 6 specialist appointments/yr
Entecavir treatment: 4 specialist appointments/yr
Patients with HCC: assumed two monthly follow up
Viral load distributionBased upon Risk Evaluation of Viral Load Elevation and Associated Liver Disease study data (Chen et al[20])
ALT level distributionBased upon Hong Kong data (Yuen et al[18])
Progression rates through different disease stagesConstant
Treatment protocol30% receive first line interferon (weekly for 12 mo); 30% seroconvert and receive no further treatment; 70% commence entecavir the following year 70% receive entecavir as first-line treatment; 20% seroconvert in first year and receive no further treatment; 80% continue lifelong entecavir
Patients with liver failureReceive lifelong entecavir