Clinical, serological and genetic predictors of inflammatory bowel disease course

Table 1 Clinical predictors of unfavourable course of Crohn’s disease and ulcerative colitis

Study	Cohort type	No. of patients	Definition or marker of unfavourable course	Independent predictors of unfavourable course, present at diagnosis
Crohn’s disease
Within the first 5 yr after diagnosis
Beaugerie et al[10], 2006	Referral centre (Saint-Antoine)	1188	Disabling disease1	Age < 40 yr Perianal disease Need for steroids for treating the first flare
Henriksen et al[12], 2007	Population-based (IBSEN)	200	Intestinal resection within the study period	Upper gastrointestinal lesions
Loly et al[11], 2008	Referral centre (Liège)	361	Disabling disease1	Perianal disease Need for steroids for treating the first flare Ileo-colonic lesions
Within the first 10 yr after diagnosis
Wolters et al[14], 2006	Population-based (EC-IBD)	358	First recurrence	Upper gastrointestinal lesions Age < 40 yr
Solberg et al[13], 2007	Population-based (IBSEN)	197	First surgical operation	Age < 40 yr Stricturing and penetrating behaviour2 (including perianal fistulas and abscesses) Terminal ileal location
Ulcerative colitis Within the first 5 yr after diagnosis
Henriksen et al[12], 2007	Population-based (IBSEN)	454	Relapse during the study period	Female gender Younger age
Within the first 10 yr after diagnosis
Langholz et al[2], 1994	Population-based (county of Copenhagen)	1161	Relapsing or chronic active course	Less systemic symptoms (fever, weight loss)
			Colectomy	Extensive colitis High disease activity (including systemic symptoms)
Höie et al[56], 2007	Population-based (EC-IBD)	771	Frequent relapse	Female gender Younger age Non-smoking status
Höie et al[57], 2007	Population-based (EC-IBD)	781	Colectomy	Extensive colitis
Solberg et al[4], 2009	Population-based (IBSEN)	423	Colectomy	Extensive colitis

¹One or more of the following criteria: more than 2 steroid courses, steroid dependence, hospitalization for disease flare or complication, disabling chronic symptoms, need for immunosuppressive therapy, intestinal resection or surgical operation for surgical disease;

²According to Vienna classification. IBSEN: A population-based inception cohort study; EC-IBD: European collaborative study group of inflammatory bowel disease.