Cost-benefit analysis of esophageal cancer endoscopic screening in high-risk areas of China

Table 2 Age-specific parameters

Parameters	Value
	40-yr	45-yr	50-yr	55-yr	60-yr	65-69-yr
Transition probability
SD/CIS
Regression to MD	0.17	0.15	0.14	0.12	0.11	0.09
Remaining SD/CIS	0.75	0.75	0.74	0.74	0.73	0.73
Progression to IC	0.08	0.10	0.12	0.14	0.16	0.18
IC
Remaining IC	0.60	0.50	0.40	0.20	0.15	0.13
Progression to SC	0.40	0.50	0.60	0.80	0.85	0.87
SC
Remaining SC	0.80	0.70	0.55	0.20	0.17	0.15
Progression to INC	0.20	0.30	0.45	0.80	0.83	0.85
Death probability
Non-esophageal-cancer mortality	0.002270	0.003073	0.007054	0.017061	0.019744	0.024105
All-cause mortality	0.002438	0.003383	0.007967	0.019559	0.021985	0.027370
Case fatality rate of esophageal cancer	0.581700	0.581700	0.581700	0.581700	0.581700	0.581700

MD: Moderate dysplasia; SD/CIS: Severe dysplasia/carcinoma in situ; IC: Intramucosal carcinoma; SC: Submucosal carcinoma (T₁N₀M₀); INC: Invasive carcinoma.