Non-invasive prediction of oesophageal varices in cirrhosis

Table 1 Predictive efficacy of platelet count, spleen size and their derived functions in cirrhosis due to hepatitis C and alcohol (mean ± SD) (AUC-area under curve, ROC-receiver operating characteristic)

	Without varices	With varices	P-value	AUC of ROC curve	Best cut-off predictor value	Sensitivity (%)	Specificity (%)
Hepatitis C cirrhosis	67	26
Platelet count (× 109/L)	136 ± 53	87 ± 44	< 0.001	0.78	90	78	61
Spleen size (cm)	12.4 ± 2.6	15.0 ± 2.3	< 0.001	0.78	14	82	65
Platelet:Spleen ratio	11.8 ± 6.0	6.2 ± 4.3	< 0.001	0.81	6.5	82	65
Platelet and spleen derived predictor[6]				0.84	1	79	77
Alcoholic cirrhosis	42	35
Platelet count (× 109/L)	200 ± 90	142 ± 99	0.009	0.74	130	79	57
Spleen size (cm)	11.2 ± 2.4	12.9 ± 3.5	0.02	0.68	12	71	54
Platelet:Spleen ratio	19.0 ± 10.6	13.4 ± 14.2	0.06	0.75	11.1	81	57
Platelet and spleen derived predictor[6]				0.72	0.09	71	60

AUC: Area under curve; ROC: Receiver operating characteristic.